Stat of the Day, 3rd January 2018

Tuesday's Result :

6.10 Newcastle : Shamshon @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 3/1 In touch, ridden over 1f out, no extra inside final furlong, beaten by 2.5 lengths.

Next up is Wednesday's...

3.00 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mixboy @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 3, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m on Good to Soft ground worth £10.007 to the winner...

Why?

Keith Dalgleish is better known for his prowess with Flat/AW runners, but also does quite well with a smaller string of NH horses and to date, his record with chasers stands at 11 wins from 28 (39.3% SR) for 21pts (+75% ROI) profit, all from male horses! It's a small sample size, but does show that he knows what he's doing and in respect of today's contest, those 28 chasers are...

  • 10/20 (50%) for 27.25pts (+136.3%) at odds of 6/4 to 8/1
  • 8/13 (61.5%) for 20.86pts (+160.5%) over trips of 2m to 2m4f
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 3.71pts (+53.1%) at Class 3
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 2.35pts (+58.8%) here at Musselburgh

He now runs this dual-purpose 8 yr old gelding, who won 3 of 5 starts over fences in 2016/17, including a 21 lengths success in this race last year before reverting back to the Flat/AW, where he won 2 of 4 ahead of today's return to chasing. So, he effectively comes here on a run of 5 from 9, but it's his 3/5 chasing record that's more relevant here, as it contains...

  • 3/3 when priced shorter than 4-1 & 3/3 in fields of 4-8 runners
  • 2/2 over trips of 2m/2m0.5f & 1/1 here at Musselburgh
  • 1/1 over C&D + 1/1 at Class 3 (Both in this race in 2017)
  • 1/1 in January and 1/1 going right handed (also both here in 2017)

Plus, since 2010, chasers who ran on either the Flat or A/W last time out and either won or lost by less than 15 lengths then won 110 of 720 (15.3% SR) returns to chasing, generating 431.4pts (+59.9% ROI) profit, including...

  • males at 98/653 (15%) for 418.9pts (+64.1%)
  • handicappers at 58/391 (14.8%) for 233.6pts (+59.7%)
  • 31-45 days since last run : 19/80 (23.75%) for 250.2pts (+312.8%)
  • and here at Musselburgh : 3/12 (25%) for 2.72pts (+22.7%)

...giving us...... a 1pt win bet on Mixboy @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy Power at 5.50pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

4 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 3rd January 2018

  1. Blokeshead

    Hehe … he didn’t win by a nose, he won by a nose hair. But, they all count, and I guess we’ve all lost count of the number of SotD horses who’ve been mugged on the line.

    Nice call, Chris, although commiserations to any poor soul who was on Solar Impulse. I wouldn’t have been able to separate those two, even from the photo – I guess my eyes are getting old, like the rest of me.

  2. N17

    Well done with the winner Chris.

    You certainly have the bookies worried, they must be reading your SotD column as soon as it is posted. The 3/1 about Mixboy disappeared within minutes. Same thing happens most days.

    Nigel

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