Stat of the Day, 3rd December 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 3rd December 2013

Well, Full Speed's top speed wasn't fast enough yesterday and although he ran well enough without troubling the judges, he was very one paced on the run-in when looking like he had every chance.

So, a losing start to the new week with that 4th place at our advised 3/1 odds means that we were foiled in our hat trick bid, but we're looking to hit back with a trip to the North East for a 2m 4f handicap chase, better known as the...

3.00 Sedgefield

I'm particularly early to post (just after 8pm Monday) with this one, as I've got a hospital appointment in the morning that might have left me short of time to put a selection up, so I'd advise a check on the prices etc tomorrow.

My selection is the 9/4 shot Monbeg who comes here aiming to follow-up last Tuesday's course and distance win, when he stayed on well to score at 7/1 despite being hampered badly enough to cause him to stumble at the last. He has only been raised 3lbs for that win and that might look a tad lenient, hence his relatively short (by SotD standards anyway!) price.

In the last three years, previous Sedgefield course and distance winners who return to the course on the back of a win have won 14 of 36 attempts (38.9% SR) when sent off at 6/1 or under and these winners have returned level stakes profits of 15.9pts at Betfair SP (the closest approximation to BOG that I can give you), or the equivalent of 44.2% off all stakes invested.

In 2013 alone those figures are 6/15 (40%) for 7.72pts or 51.5% ROI.

Monbeg is also one of those horses that won last time out after a string of unplaced finishes and gets turned out pretty quickly afterwards. Those turned out within 30 days of landing that elusive win have gone on to win 24.4% (92 wins from 377) of their follow-up races this year for level stakes profits of 78.7pts (20.9% ROI). Whilst those at the sharper end of affairs ie 6/1 or shorter have a 33.2% strike rate (81/244) for 88.1pts (+36.1% ROI) profit.

And from those 244 runners priced at 6/1 or under, 12 have taken their chance here at Sedgefield, notching up six winners (50% SR) and 7.82pts (+65.2% ROI) profit to date.

If Wilson Renwick can keep the horse handy, but out of trouble, then there's no reason why a 1pt win bet on Monbeg at 9/4 BOG won't prove profitable. I'm still playing with the weekend's winnings in my Bet365 account, but I seriously recommend that you...

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3 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 3rd December 2013

  1. Brian

    Matt,

    Just a quicky to let you know how stupid these bookies are getting.
    I am a pensioner who likes a bet and one who follows your stat of the day.
    I only bet small i.e £2 £3 or £5 at most.
    I have just placed a £3 bet on Monbeg at 11/4 with my betfred account and they will not accept it but have restricted my stake to 20p.
    I have contacted them but say my account is restricted and there’s nothing they can do.
    I had the grand total of £26.54 in the account. Now I have nothing as I have withdrawn it.
    Just thought I’d mention it to show that it is not only the big money men that suffer.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hi Brian,

      At bets that size, they shouldn’t be restricting you, but I’d advise opening other accounts or even taking an early betfair price for the SotD picks.

      Chris

    2. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Following on from Chris’ point, it’s often more about profile than bet size. If you’re consistently beating the market AND taking the best available odds at that time, it’s likely that you’ll get restricted.

      Basically, bookmakers know that if you beat the market most ofthe time, they can’t beat you.

      As Chris says, there are plenty of other bookmakers who will accommodate you for as long as they will, and so it’s time to move on.

      Best,
      Matt

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