Stat of the Day, 3rd April 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 3rd April 2015

Ascendant ran pretty well yesterday, eventually finishing second to the horse I made a false favourite, Bombadero. The pick was sent off 10/3 as against the early 4/1 but that really was scant consolation as we continue to search for a first winner of the week.

Two years ago this would have been a day off, but the insistence that Good Friday racing should be high quality has paid dividends, and there are two excellent cards to go at this afternoon. My nomination has fallen in the...

2.25 Musselburgh:

A bit of snobbery looks to be at play in this race, with the bottom weight largely overlooked in the betting despite winning his last four races. The reasons for this seem to be that 1) Gabrial The Terror has been winning in lower class, and 2) he's been winning on the all weather.

But that ignores some pretty pertinent facts, in my opinion:

- Form at longer distances: Since stepping up to distances beyond a mile and a quarter, GTT is unbeaten in four. Form of 1111 lends credence to the contention that there is more to come at this sort of range

- Form working out: Although no horse has run again since his most recent win, the three previous wins have seen subsequent win strike rates of 44%, 57% and 40%. That is, the horses beaten in those races have been winning since.

- Decent turf form with the trip hand brake on: The perception that GTT has improved for the all weather is misguided. In fact, if anything, his first three AW runs, all at around his the same trip as his turf runs, were of a lower standard than his prior turf form. No, it's the step up in trip that has made the difference, and it's actually possible he could step forwards for the return to turf.

Fahey's so hot right now...: A little quote from Zoolander for those who know that film (!). Irrespective of that, Richard Fahey is in flying form currently. He gets all four trainer form indicators on the race card, and has been pleasantly profitable to follow in the last 14 days (29% win rate, +23.23), 30 days (24%, +18.98), at this track in the past year (23%, +31.98), and at this track since 2009 (20%, +33.20).

- Fahey and Hamilton are a hot combo: Fahey and Tony Hamilton are a dynamite duo at the moment. Indeed, Hamilton has three green form indicators of his own on the card. They've combined on eleven horses in the past fortnight, winning with five of them (45.45%, +17.23).

This is a big step up in class, but I feel that Gabrial The Terror's price is wrong. And, in point of fact, it wouldn't surprise me if it drifted further if I'm right about public perception putting his improvement down to all weather surfaces. Of course, he could get outclassed, and the public might be right (they usually, but crucially not always, are) about his favoured underfoot. But at a minimum of 12/1 (Hills), he's worth the chance, each way.

As always, be sure that's still top price by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 2.25 Musselburgh

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6 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 3rd April 2015

  1. simonr

    Morning Matt,
    An interesting selection and one that I looked at last night. “Instant Expert”
    shows a row of blanks until you get to distance. Quite a number of times I have seen winners with this blank profile compared with all the rest of the runners having some colours.
    Good luck with this one.
    Simon

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Hi Simon,

      Thanks. Yes, I might well be wrong, but the contention that his improvement is due to distance not surface is not popular (i.e. the public feels surface is the reason). Hence the price.

      He needs to step up, but I hope that back on turf he might be able to do that.

      We’ll see…

      Matt

  2. Matt Bisogno Post author

    Really sorry about today. I called that one hopelessly wrong. The slow gallop wouldn’t have helped, nor would the rain softened ground. But even allowing for both of those things, that was a proper clunker.

    We’ll try again tomorrow. Hopefully you’re having an otherwise profitable Good Friday.

    Matt

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Thanks chispa. Public tipping is a hard game, but I put up selections I would (and do) back myself, without worrying too much about the added pressure. I’d be lying if I said I didn’t feel it though. Anyway, maybe we can bounce back tomorrow from a pretty poor week.

      Matt

  3. jethro

    Just to rub salt into the wounds, I see Richard Fahey’s other “Gabrial” runner today in the 4.30 Musselburgh (Gabrial the Duke); which has also been doing all of its recent racing on the all-weather tracks, bolted in on the turf! hmmm…
    Perhaps the gods weren’t smiling on us, due to us betting on horses named after angels on Good Friday! ha ha
    That’s racing Matt… Another day tomorrow!

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