Stat of the Day, 31st March 2017

Thursday's Result :

3.10 Wolverhampton : Fast Track @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 4/1 Close up, ridden and headway over 1f out, soon every chance, unable to quicken inside final furlong and lost 2nd place

Friday's pick goes in the...

4.10 Fontwell...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Carnspindle @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

A 5 yr old mare making a handicap debut over 2m6f after a 7 length victory at Exeter 24 days ago.

Her trainer Warren Greatrex doesn't send many here to Fontwell, but it can't be because his runners struggle here, as they're 9/33 (27.3% SR) for 1.32pts (+3.99% ROI) since 2014, which I know is pretty modest for SotD terms, but interestingly (to me, anyway!), is that from those 33 runners...

  • Class 4 = 7/23 (30.4%) for 5.44pts (+23.7%)
  • over trips of 2m3f and beyond : 9/21 (42.9%) for 13.32pts (+63.4%)
  • at odds of 3/1 and shorter : 8/18 (44.4% SR) for 3.41pts (+19%)
  • in handicaps : 5/16 (31.25%) for 7.78pts (+48.6%)
  • 5 yr olds are 4/8 950%) for 2.12pts (+26.5%)
  • females are 3/7 (42.9%) for 12.44pts (+177.8%)
  • and LTO winners are 3/7 (42.9%) for 1.8pts (+25.8%)

...which are decent figures from just a 33-runner sample. I also mentioned that this was Carnspindle's handicap debut and further reassurance about the selection comes via the fact that since the start of 2011, Warren's handicap debutants priced at 6/4 to 9/2 are 10 from 35 (28.6% SR) for 5.32pts (+15.2% ROI), including...

  • those last seen 16-60 days ago are 8/20 (40%) for 12.82pts (+64.1%)
  • those ridden by Gavin Sheehan are 6/16 (37.5%) for 11.13pts (+69.6%)
  • 5 yr olds are 5/15 (33.3%) for 5.75pts (+38.3%)
  • those racing over 2m 4.5f are 7/14 (50%) for 17.09pts (+122.1%)
  • and females are 3/6 (50%) for 2.48pts (+41.4%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Carnspindle @ 11/4 BOG which was available from Betway, Coral, Marathon & BetVictor at 5.55pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Fontwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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