Stat of the Day, 31st July 2013
They say racing's a strange sport at times and yesterday proved the point somewhat. I was happy enough to take 5/2 about Saigon City, as I thought he was the best prospect in the race. The market, however, completely disagreed with me and he was so weak that he was eventually sent off at 6/1.
The old adage of the horse not knowing what odds he is, certainly rang true for us as 3lb claimer Patrick Hills gave our selection a great ride, taking the lead at just the right time and with a quick turn of speed showed his heels to the pack, running on to score by over a length and looking like he had more to give if needed.
I should also add that the other Cumani runner, Lionheart, highlighted at 4/1 was a 2/1 winner yesterday too.
The six points profit from the Saigon City bet will do very nicely and I aim to close a successful month out with another decent prospect in a ten-runner, Class 3 Handicap. The going is likely to be good, but softer in places which should suit our runner in the...
Roger Charlton's handicappers tend to go very well at this time of year and in the months of July and August over the last three years, he has notched up 10 winners from 29 with a further 5 runners making the frame. That's a win strike rate of 34.5% and a place success ratio of 53.6%. The ten winners have produced a decent profit of some 18.5pts, which equates to a return over stakes of 62.24%.
And with 8 winners and 6 placed from just 32 runners this month, the yard comes here in good form and runs So Beloved in this contest.
So Beloved is related to some good horses and beat several decent sorts to land his maiden win at Salisbury last October over 1 mile on soft ground. He had Tawhid (subsequent Group 3 winner) and Greatwood (short head runner-up to Windhoek at Newmarket in the Tattersalls Millions in April and then a Group 2 runner) behind him that day beating them by a length and almost 3 lengths respectively, so the ability is there.
He won on his seasonal reappearance (7f, firm ground) at Haydock in May, before being entered for the Britannia Stakes at Ascot last month and although he finished 12 th of the 27 runners that day, he was far from disgraced, finishing just 6.5 lengths behind the winner, Roca Tomu. That Class 2 race was probably asking a little too much of him and Class 3 events like today seem more his level.
As well as having his runners in top form at this time of year, Roger Charlton is very adept at dropping horses down a grade (or even two!) and getting them to win. In fact 24 of the 85 horses he has dropped in Class have gone on to win straight away, giving him a strike rate of 28.2% with those runners and level stakes profits of 80.6pts, an ROI of 94.8%. Of those 85 runners dropped in class, 53% of them have been placed (45 runners).
In short, So Beloved is dropping down to the level best suited to him and runs over a trip and ground that he'll enjoy. He's running for a yard in form, as it always tends to be at this time of year and one who gets great results from horses dropping down in class. The only potential blot on the horizon is the presence of a fairly warm favourite in the guise of Frankel's half-brother, Morpheus, a 13/8 shot. This favourite is running well, but isn't certain to cope with a 3 lb rise and should he falter, our selection should be ready to take full advantage.
BetVictor are currently offering 17/2 BOG about So Beloved, therefore the prudent call is a 0.5pt E/W bet at that 17/2 BOG. Should our selection win, it stills pays out like a 5/1 winner and if it only places, we still make a small profit. If you're not a BetVictor account holder (you really should be by now!), then you can see what your bookie is offering when you...