Stat of the Day, 31st January 2013

Stat of the Day: 31/01/13

Stat of the Day: 31/01/13

Stat of the Day, 31st January 2013

A fantastic ride from Adam Kirby aboard a gutsy battling horse was just the ticket yesterday. Adam made a bold move and set off for home some 3 furlongs before the finish, but it looked increasingly like he was going to get overhauled late on and we'd have to settle for place money. Fortunately, both horse (Canary Wharf) and jockey galvanised themselves for one last push, regained the lead and just (only just!) held on by a short head.

It was good news for those who took the early E/W offer of 6/1, as this paid out more than a full 1pt win at the 7/2 SP!

We're going chasing in the mud today, as we head for the day's final race in the Somerset countryside. Stamina will be tested to the full for the eight runners tackling the 3 miles 1.5 furlongs on heavy ground. Our race is a Class 4 Handicap Chase, better known as the...

4.10 Wincanton

Our trainer in the spotlight today is Mrs Susan Gardner whose yard is in decent enough form based on six winners and two further places from her last twenty runners, but she comes into her own in contests similar to today's. In fact, over the last 12 months, her record in handicap chases shows an impressive 38.9% win strike rate and a 50% place strike rate, courtesy of seven winners and two places from eighteen. These seven winners have helped her followers to profits of 17.7pts (98.33%) in that time. Her career record in Wincanton handicap chases is 115P : a 2/4 record yielding 22pts profit!

Susan actually runs two handicap chasers today: Sea Saffron is priced between 16/1 and 25/1 in the 3.10 race over the same course & distance and that's probably about right. He's the outsider in that event and not one I'd rush to back in a very competitive affair. Mrs Gardner's second entrant today is our selection: Flying Award.

Flying Award has already collected three wins from six runs over fences and stays well, having proved his stamina by winning on similarly heavy ground at Exeter on New year's Day. That race was admittedly over the slightly shorter trip of three miles. Today's trip shouldn't pose any problems, though, as he also holds victories at 3m2f (good to soft) and a stamina-sapping 3m6f on soft ground at Bangor in mid-December.

He made a step up last time out when contesting the Grade 3 Betfred Classic Chase at Warwick and whilst not making the frame, was by no means disgraced with his 4th placed finish in a decent race over 3m 5f on soft ground. The drop back in quality and trip should help him today, as he visits Wincanton for only the second time (he won a handicap hurdle at 6/1 back in April 2011).

He actually races 5lbs higher than that win at Exeter at the turn of the year, but I believe he'll have enough in his locker to defy the penalty. Lucy Gardner takes the ride once more today and Lucy's in decent nick herself, having won on five of her last ten mounts, including Flying Award's victories at Bangor and Exeter.

The main dangers today are likely to come from Alderluck, but I'm happy to take a 1pt win bet on Flying Award at the widely available 9/2 BOG. I've gone with BetVictor today, but feel free to...

Click here for the latest betting on the 4.10 Wincanton

5 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 31st January 2013

  1. Josh W

    couldnt agree more with this selection. for me, most if not all of the rivals have some question mark against them, whether it is right handed, galloping track, trip, ground, form, jumping or lack of appetite for winning or placing. be very surprised if we dont get a good run for our money.

  2. Martin

    Just a quick thankyou for the excellent ‘stat of the day’ service you provide.I can’t justify a subscription to anything and when I have been tempted in the past the information hasn’t been as good as this. 34% ROI last year puts pretty much the lot of the so called premium tipping services to shame.Keep up the good work!

  3. Josh W

    shame, gave a good run for our money. would have liked to have seen the winners jumping put under more pressure and have been closer to the pace as entered the home straight. never mind, onto tomorrow!

  4. Chris A

    Nearly but not quite today Chris….thought Flying Award’s jumping let him down and never quite got close enough to put pressure on the winner. At 5s, took an e/w punt so money back and onward to tomorrow!!

    keep up the good work.

    Cheers, Chris

  5. john

    Was fortunate enough to have had a bit on Tuesdays Stat of the day. Therefore not too downhearted with yesterdays excellent second. Still well in profit so will be keeping a keen eye for the next one.

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