Stat of the Day, 30th September 2017

Friday's Result :

3.00 Newmarket : Nyaleti @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 2/1 : Raced alone towards far side of centre, chased leaders, 2nd over 1f out, ridden and stayed on inside final furlong, just held off by a head...

Saturday's last pick of another successful month goes in the...

3.10 Ripon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Show Palace @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding is in great form, having finished 131171 in his last six runs and this consistency is refelcted in his career record of 9 wins from 22 on the Flat, which include the following relevant stats for today's race...

  • 9 wins and a place from 17 at 5 furlongs
  • 7 wins and 3 places from 16 after a break of just 8-30 days
  • 5 wins from 7 in August/September
  • 3 wins and 2 place from 6 soft ground efforts
  • 3 wins from 3 under Joe Fanning
  • and 1 from 1 in this grade.

He's trained by Jennie Candlish, possibly better known for her NH runners, but she's currently 2 from over the last fortnight, whilst over the past 2 years her record includes...

  • 56/348 (16.1%) for 19pts (+5.5%) in handicaps
  • 13/62 (21%) for 39.5pts (+63.6%) on the Flat
  • 13/59 (22%) for 42.5pts (+71.9%) in Flat handicaps
  • 7/16 (43.75%) for 16.56pts (+103.5%) in handicaps over 5 furlongs
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 16.2pts (+116%) with handicappers ridden by Joe Fanning

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Show Palace @ 7/2 BOG, which was offered by a half dozen of so firms at 6.50pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Ripon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

6 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 30th September 2017

  1. Blokeshead

    Well, this place is never dull, is it? Today’s SotD pick is also on the list of “Max SR, Min Trip” picks. I’d take that as a huge plus, yet, as I type, the price is drifting considerably. Recent history says run away from drifters, but I’ve been following Chris for long enough to have seen some real rudderless barges romp home first.

    It’ll be an interesting race to watch. I’ve stuck 1.5x my usual stake on it and, now that the place price has popped above 2.0 (or evens, if you prefer) an equal amount on it to place. Come on, Joe Fanning, do your stuff!

    Have a good weekend, one and all! 🙂

    1. Everyone calls me Paul

      I’d not disagree with the general overview, except to say that Saturday’s picks are sometimes drifters especially when in the more high profile races. Think I’ll just keep to normal MSRMT stakes but split the profit / loss to each record (I’ll go less down the BFSP route than usual). Here’s hoping.
      Paul

  2. Everyone calls me Paul

    I’d not disagree with the general overview, except to say that Saturday’s picks are sometimes drifters especially when in the more high profile races. Think I’ll just keep to normal MSRMT stakes but split the profit / loss to each record (I’ll go less down the BFSP route than usual). Here’s hoping.
    Paul

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