Stat of the Day, 30th September 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 30th September 2013

Another crossbar-rattler yesterday rounded off what was a blank week for SotD: no winners, but some very close shaves.

Just as on Saturday, our selection went down by a head yesterday as our 5/1 shot Mime Dance was backed all the way in to become the 11/4 fav at the off.

He didn't get a clear run and had to be switched a couple of times before running on strongly to chase the winner home, just failing to get up alongside and missing out by a head.

So Saturday's runner got collared late on and Sunday's couldn't quite get there. The closeness of the defeats tends to suggest we're on the right path at least!

September will end in profit irrespective of today's result, but the 11pts we could have harvested over the weekend would have been a nice touch, so we'll aim to keep the scoreboard ticking with one in the...

3.20 Newton Abbot

Where on a day pretty short of quality (isn't that generally the case on Mondays?) and also short on valid stats, I've managed to find a horse that fits two of my micro systems. The general percentage figures aren't quite up to the usual SotD numbers, but the fact that To The Sky fits two sets of criteria makes him my best stat-based bet today.

So, where to start?

1. Former Newton Abbot Course & Distance winners returning here on the back of a win (anywhere!) last time out have a 17/61 (27.87% SR) over the last three years when running here priced at 12/1 or under. Those numbers have produced level stakes profits of 33.2pts , or 54.4% of stakes invested. (13/50 is the record of those whose last run and win, of course, was also here at Newton Abbot)

To The Sky's last run came here over today's course and distance 29 days ago, when he was victorious on his debut for new trainer John O'Shea and looked a totally different prospect than his recent efforts over in Ireland. He kept in well that day to score by two lengths and although the ground will be much softer (G to S) today than the GD to firm four weeks ago, it should be noted that he has already made the frame on soft ground and won on heavy.

2. To The Sky is another of those horses turned back out within a month of finally coming back to some form. When we look at those horses who have a string of 3 or more successive unplaced finishes, before suddenly winning again, we find that they have a record when turned back out within the next month.

In 2013 alone there have been 261 National Hunt horses running at odds of 12/1 or under within 30 days of that return to form and 73 of those 261 (27.97% SR) have gone on to secure back-to-back victories returning 82.55pts (+31.63% ROI) in the process.

To The Sky was on a run of 7 unplaced efforts (5 over hurdles, 2 on flat) before the switch to John O'Shea's yard. John has obviously done something right with this 5 yr old to get him looking a far better prospect already and the way he kept on last time out suggests there's more to come from him today. The horse has undoubted talent and at 5yrs old is still young enough to be "worked on".

A measure of his purported ability can be derived from the fact he competed (and finished mid-division) in races at both Group 2 and Group 3 level in Ireland last year and a handicap mark of 112 today doesn't seem too onerous, as he was placed 3rd at Naas off 118 on soft ground. He runs off a mark 6lbs lower than that here and with jockey Ciaran McKee taking another 7lbs off, he's going to be in with a great shout today.

To The Sky comes here in good nick and looks quite long at 8/1 BOG today. They say fortune favours the brave and as the race has been reduced to just 7 runners eliminating one place at the bookies, I'm going all in with a 1pt win bet. I've taken 8/1 BOG with Bet365, but this price is also on offer at Betfred, so you can take your pick, when you...

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3 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 30th September 2013

  1. Matt Bisogno Post author

    Given a terrible ride, Chris. Comedy stuff, going 20 lengths clear before (predictably) tiring. Big drifter in the market, implied that he was a non-trier today. There will be another day for this fellow, I’m sure.

    Matt

  2. dolphin68

    Hi Chris and Matt…Watched the race too, and when your horse bombs off in front you do often expect the worst. Got the feeling that if it had been ridden more conservatively, it may have been in the mix at the end since it did finish 4th…admittedly a distance fourth (by 20l…the same as his madcap lead at one stage).

    Matt, you used the term ‘non-trier’? What is a non-trier? Is it a horse or jockey that are deliberately ridden in a way that will ensure that they won’t perform to their best? How do you spot ‘non-triers’. Are ‘non-triers’ worth backing in the future?

    I remember Tony Keenan posting some of his thoughts on this topic.

    Martin

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Hi Martin

      Yes, that’s precisely what a non-trier is. Since the rules were tightened up to try to prevent horses running out the back before passing a few without ever coming under pressure, the new trick is to run them miles in front so they’re highly unlikely to get home. I can’t say for sure whether that was the case with today’s nag, but it is certainly one credible explanation for that performance (allied to the heavy market drift).

      Matt

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