Stat of the Day, 30th November 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 30th November 2013

Well, I was unwittingly in exalted company on Friday evening, as both Timeform and Hugh Taylor tipped up our selection Dodina, but that didn't help me get a winner, although it was probably the driving force behind her being backed in from 8/1 overnight to becoming the 5/2 favourite.

Our 4/1 advised odds beat the market, but not the six horses ahead of her as she trooped home a disappointing 7th, over 6 lengths of the pace after dropping away in the final furlong.

We've one last chance for the month on what looks a very competitive Saturday afternoon of racing. These are the kinds of days that throw up a few shocks and I'm hoping for one in the...

12.45 Towcester:

Where I've placed a 0.5pts E/W bet on Classic Case at 14/1 BOG with Bet365.

Classic Case is trained by Ian Williams, who has a good record here at Towcester in chase events, despite not having sent any here yet this year! During 2011 and 2012 he saddled up four winning chasers from seven for a level stakes profit of 4.87pts from a sequence of results that reads 111U213 and today Classic Case becomes Ian's first chaser at Towcester since Boxing Day 2012.

This horse made his chasing debut at Uttoxeter six weeks ago and although he was well beaten that day, he plugged on and completed the race in one piece. He jumped well that day, suggesting that he might have more of a future over the larger obstacles and although he was struggling to keep up with the pace of the race, it has to be pointed out that it was his first outing since finishing 5th at Aintree over 10 months earlier.

He's expected to come on for last month's run in a race which has already produced 5 subsequent winners and although his odds might suggest he has little/no chance here, this is a race that seriously lacks both quality and depth.

I'm basing my bet today on the trainer's record at getting chasers to either win or make the frame here, the lack of real quality in the race, the projected improvement over fences from Classic Case and my belief that 14/1 is far too big about him here.

So, as at the top of the piece, the call is a 0.5pt E/W bet on Classic Case at 14/1 BOG with Bet365, but when I went to press, only a handful of firms had a market on this race (some were offering 11/1), so my advice would be to...

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10 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 30th November 2013

  1. Martin

    Hello Chris….good write up….and I agree tomorrow’s racing is very competitive but I think there are many outsiders (some are already shortening up) who may upset some of the favourites….Grumeti in the 2.05 in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle may just surprise at nice odds 10/1 and Highland Lodge in the Gold Cup at Newbury although at 10/1 now starting to shorten a little. Think you’ve added to the list Chris.

    Martin

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Yes, very much so. We do try and select runners at value prices, because that is the long-term key to success.
      It also highlights once again the necessity to have as many accounts as you can, as well as the need to be taking the BOG prices when you think the odds are higher than they should be.
      I’m not entirely convinced this horse should be as low as the paltry 4/1 on offer from Stan James and it’ll probably drift out from the 11/2 you mentioned, but 14/1 was definitely too muh and hard to ignore.

      Chris

  2. Blokeshead

    Well done, Chris, and also anyone else who got on at 14s. I “only” got 8s and am gutted. Will have to go out tonight and drown my sorrows! Luckily I can afford to…. 😉

    Cheers!

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Cheers! 5 winners from 12 now since my holiday and 22.5pts profit to boot.
      In fact the second half of the year has been amazing. Since July 1st, we’re 37/130 (28.46% SR) for 43.4pts (+33.4% ROI).
      Not bad for a free service!

      As for The Shortlist, these things happen.
      Matt’s probably already forgotten more about horses than I currently know, so you can be sure he’ll be firing the winners again next week.

      Chris

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