Stat of the Day, 30th May 2014
Ardmay ran a pretty flat race yesterday, as was picked up by the commentary team at the time. He broke well enough and stayed on towards the finish, but spent the majority of the other six furlongs of the mile trip, wandering about not getting involved.
As it was, he was outpaced in the second half of the race and only finally got going too late. He stayed on to pass a few rivals, but was beaten into 5th place (5.5 lengths) after being sent off at the 7/2 favourite, slightly longer than our 10/3 BOG price.
It's Friday, so we're off to the seaside for the....
And Roger Varian's handicap debutant Three Cliffs, who can currently be backed at 3/1 BOG in several places.
1. Roger Varian has had five winners from the sixteen runners he has sent to Brighton. This 31.25% strike rate has produced 11.42pts profit at Betfair SP (the closest approximation we can get to BOG prices: BOG is generally higher than BFSP too!). This represents an ROI of 71.4% with his handicappers providing even more profit.
His handicap runners here at Brighton are 4/13 (30.8% SR) for 13.02pts (+100.2% ROI).
2. When running horses on their handicap debut in races on the Flat and in classes 3 to 6 he has a record of 20 wins from 86 (23.3% SR) for 25.2pts (+29.3% ROI) profit. Those sent off in the 2/1 to 7/1 bracket have won 17 of 63 (27% SR) for 31.7pts (+50.3% ROI)
If we look at this flat handicap debutants at today's Class 5 level, we have 8 winners from 20 (40% SR) for 17.1pts (+85.5% ROI) profit with an 8/15 (53.3% SR) record with those at 6/1 or shorter generating 22.1pts (+147.3% ROI) profit.
3. Three Cliffs drops down to from a mile last time out to compete here at a shade under 6f. When Roger has dropped his handicappers in trip by one to two and a half furlongs over the last three seasons, 18 of 75 (24% SR) have won, resulting in 41.6pts (+55.5% ROI) profit, whilst those sent off in the 2/1 to 8/1 price banding have won 12 from 51 (23.5% SR) for 21pts (+41.2% ROI).
4. Today's jockey is Ross Atkinson, who claims three pounds and Roger Varian doesn't use these claimers very often, but when he does, they're profitable. Nine winners from just twenty-nine runners in the last couple of seasons is a pretty healthy 31% strike rate and this in turn has generated 29.2pts profit, a figure equivalent to 100.7% of stakes invested.
All nine winners came from the 22 runners (40.9% SR) at classes 4 to 6 producing 36.2pts (+164.5% ROI) and his record here at Brighton with the 3lb claimer jockeys is two winners from two.
Three Cliffs was an expensive purchase at 200,000 guineas and he's by Exceed And Excel who was certainly no mug, especially at this 6 furlong trip, where he won 6 of eight races, including five Group victories. I'm not even thinking of suggesting this horse is anywhere near that standard, but his breeding does suggest he'll be a decent sort.
A drop in trip and a switch to turf might be exactly what's required today, so I'm backing Three Cliffs at 3/1 BOG with SkyBet. To see which other firms are matching that price, simply...
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