Stat of the Day, 30th July 2016

Friday's Result :

2.35 Goodwood : Thikriyaat @ 11/4 BOG WON at 9/4 (Sweating, held up in 5th, headway chasing leaders 2f out, not clear run and switched left over 1f out, quickened up well to challenge inside final furlong, ran on to lead final 100 yards)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

8.45 Hamilton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lara Carbonara at 6/1 BOG

Why?

This 4yr old filly is a regular visitor to Hamilton, so she's comfortable with the surroundings and conditions she'll encounter and was third here over 1m5f last time out, 16 days ago. She's eased a pound in the weights, dropped down a class and two furlongs, all of which should help her remain competitive today.

To date, she is 2/7 in handicaps here at Hamilton, of which she's 2/5 in fields of 7 to 9 runners, 2/4 on good to soft ground and 2/4 after a break of 11 to 20 days.

Her trainer John Patrick (aka Pat) Shanahan tends to do well with the small number of horses he sends here on the mammoth trip from his base at Kells, just 15 miles North of Tramore on Ireland's South Coast and since 2013 his record in handicaps here at Hamilton stands at 8 winners from 48 (16.7% SR) for 19pts (+39.7% ROI), with the following of relevance today...

  • at Classes 4 to 6 : 8/44 (18.2%) for 23pts (+52.3%)
  • in 2015/16 : 7/38 (18.4%) for 10.93pts (+28.8%)
  • Rated (OR) 76 or less : 8/37 (21.6%) for 30pts (+81.2%)
  • priced at 7/2 to 12/1 (not sure where we'll end up!) @ 6/35 (17.1%) for 25.3pts (+72.3%)
  • females : 6/32 (18.8%) for 14pts (+43.7%)
  • 16-45 days since last run : 5/30 (16.7%) for 25.5pts (+85%)
  • ridden by Tadhg O'Shea : 5/23 (21.7%) for 22.2pts (+93.3%)
  • on Good to Soft ground : 3/8 (37.5%) for 7.06pts (+88.2%)

...and so, it's... a 1pt win bet on Lara Carbonara at 6/1 BOG which was available in around a dozen places at 9.25pm, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.45 Hamilton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

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