Stat of the Day, 30th December 2014
Despite getting beaten at Newbury on Monday afternoon, I thought Vyta du Roc put up a terrific show, but was just beaten by one who had more in reserve. Sent off at 5/2, slightly longer than our advised 9/4 odds, he stayed on well to take the lead after the last hurdle, but as they entered the final half furlong, he just didn't have the pace to put the race away.
He was eventually worn down by Parlour Games, who was a surprisingly long 6/1 SP and we had to settle for the runner-up spot, beaten by just a neck.
It was a great race to watch and despite the result, no complaints from me, as we just move on to the...
A Class 5, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 3m 0.5f on soft ground, where 10 runners are expected to line up, including our selection, Midnight Request.
Who is trained by Nigel Hawke...
A trainer who has been profitable to back for many years now, despite not having the largest number of runners to choose from. Since the start of 2008, if you'd backed every one of Nigel's 490 NH runners, 49 winners would have given you a 10% strike rate and 66.6pts profits from level stakes at an ROI of 13.6%. And whilst not the type of numbers I generally look for from an SotD trainer, they're impressive numbers from blind backing.
A simple 12/1 cap on those runners actually gets rid of 223 losing bets and just five winners to leave us with a record reading 44 winners from 262 runners (16.8% SR) for 68.9pts (+26.3% ROI) profits, which is far more to our taste.
Of these sub-12/1 runners, those running at trips of 2m6f to 3m1f are 12/48 (25% SR) for 66.9pts (+139.4% ROI)
Our horse was sired by Midnight Legend...
A prolific stallion, whose progeny are also profitable to follow. In the same 2008/14 time frame as above, his offspring have won 355 of their 2462 races for a strike rate of 14.4% and level stakes profits of a huge 710.9pts (+28.9% ROI), which is profit well worth having on a long-term basis. I do, however, appreciate that you might not all want an average of 350 bets each year from just one of my micro-systems, so I'll break it down for you to take away which bits you choose! 😀
Over hurdles : 146/1202 (12.2% SR) for 276.9pts (+23% ROI)
In handicaps : 208/1303 (16% SR) for 603.2pts (+46.3% ROI)
On Soft ground : 72/449 (16% SR) for 333.2pts (+74.2% ROI)
Trips of 2m5f to 3m4f : 182/1080 (16.9% SR) for 600.1pts (+55.6% ROI)
We can, of course, perm the above stats to our heart's content, but I won't bore you with all the details, but it is interesting to note that in handicap hurdle races these offspring are 79/611 (12.9% SR) for 214.2pts (+35.1% ROI), of which they are 7/30 (23.3% SR) for 26.2pts (+87.4% ROI) here at Taunton and 25/102 (24.5% SR) on soft ground for 105.5pts (+103.5% ROI).
And, in the last two years Midnight Legend's progeny are 17/50 (34% SR) in soft ground handicap hurdles contests, producing 100pts (+200% ROI) profit.
Tom Scudamore is in the saddle today...
And Tom has ridden 28 handicappers for Nigel Hawke over the last couple of years, winning 6 times (21.4% SR), generating level stakes profits of 11.2pts (+40.1% ROI).
Tom also has a decent record here at Taunton of late. In the last two years, he has won 4 of the 13 (30.8% SR) handicap races he has contested here at Taunton, producing 6.5pts (+50% ROI) profits in the process and when on runners priced 5/2 to 8/1, he is 4/9 (44.$% SR) for 10.5pts (+116.7% ROI).
If it all sounds like a bit of a penalty kick so far, there are, as always, reservations. Midnight Request is still a maiden after 10 races and has never raced beyond 2m 5.5f, but his breeding would suggest he'll stay the extra 3f today and he hasn't seemed to have the pace over the shorter trips to land a blow, so perhaps he'll also need the extra, as well as being able to handle it.
These doubts manifest themselves in the market, where Midnight Request is currently a best-priced 6/1 BOG, but the stats are strong enough to take him as our pick here in what doesn't look a particularly strong contest. Some of you might want to take the E/W option and at 6/1, there's enough in it to do so, but for SotD records, I'll be placing a 1pt win bet on Midnight Request at 6/1 BOG with the Betfair Sportsbook. Both Paddy Power and BetVictor are also offering 6/1 BOG, but for the whole market view...
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