Stat of the Day, 30th April 2016

Friday's Result :

5.20 Lingfield: Lightning Charlie @ 7/2 BOG WON at 13/8 (Tracked leader, led over 1f out, stayed on strongly to win by a length). And this means that despite April being a very difficult month, we're actually just one winner away from making profit! Unfortunately we've only one day left, so our last shot and...

...Saturday's pick goes in the...

2.15 Goodwood

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Miss Marjurie at 3/1 BOG.

Why?

This looks for all the world like a two horse race between our pick and Bateel, with both coming off 220+ day absences. Bateel's formline of 111 looks impressive, but closer analysis says she's only ever raced at Class 5 and Class 3 and the horses she has beaten haven't amounted to much on turf.

Miss Marjurie, however, looks to be in her element today and it is her past achievements under today's conditions that provide the fairly simple reasons behind the selection.

She won this race last year, when also returning from a lengthy break, giving her a 1 from 1 record over course and distance. She has won four of eight starts on good ground and she's 1 from 2 under jockey Shane Kelly.

She's also 3 from 7 over today's 1m4f trip and not only won this Listed event last year, went on to win a Group 3 contest at Haydock beating a subsequent Group 2 winner (Lady Tiana) before herself narrowly failing to land Gr 2 and Gr 1 prizes by a length on each occasion. At odds of 7/1 and shorter, she has 4 wins and a place from 5 runs and this comeback run actually represents a drop in class.

At 110 she's the highest rated horse in the field, 6lbs clear of her nearest rival, but only concedes a pound here and if running to her level, should be the first home.

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Miss Marjurie at 3/1 BOG with either Coral or BetVictor who were the standout prices as at 8.50pm. To see what your bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

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