Stat of the Day, 2nd September 2017

Friday's Result :

4.25 Sandown : Helfire @ 5/1 non-BOG - 2nd at 4/1 : Held up in rear, headway on inside over 2f out, chased leaders inside final furlong, kept on same pace. beaten by three quarters of a length after what I thought was a terrible ride...

Saturday's pick goes in the...

6.00 Hamilton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Whatsthemessage @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

An in-form 3 yr old filly who has finished 123111 in her last six outings and beat a bunch of male runners in a higher grade on this very track last time out 9 days ago. She just about held on over 1m1f that day, so she should welcome the 100 yards or so respite from this slightly shorter trip, as she bids to improve upon an already excellent Flat record...

...that has seen her win five of ten races to date, including...

  • 4/6 after a break of less than a fortnight
  • 3/5 on good to soft ground
  • 3/4 at Class 4
  • 2/4 over 8 to 9 furlongs
  • and 1/1 here at Hamilton from that run LTO 9 days ago.

Plus, more generally...2015-17 / UK Flat 3yo+ handicaps / trainer Keith Dalgleish's 3 yr olds are 38/189 (20.1% SR) for 88.2pts (+46.7% ROI), from which...

  • those last seen 6-25 days ago are 31/130 (23.9%) for 114pts (+87.7%)
  • those priced at 8/1 and shorter are 36/122 (29.5%) for 74.4pts (+61%)
  • in the August-October period : 20/92 (21.7%) for 97.2pts (+105.6%)
  • here at Hamilton : 12/51 (23.5%) for 70.9pts (+139%)
  • LTO winners are 14/35 (40%) for 49.3pts (+140.8%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Whatsthemessage @ 11/4 BOG, which was offered by a half dozen firms at 6.55pm on Friday: the choice is yours! For what it's worth, I'm on with Coral. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Hamilton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

4 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 2nd September 2017

    1. whiston01

      This games all about opinions. I’m not sure about a very poor ride on Hellfire. It was drawn wide in eight,the jockey dropped him out as usual at the back and got him on the inside early on. The pace up front was generous and with 2 1/2 f to go our jockey was at work to close.The pace collapsed a bit and the winner took it up. Our horse closed on the rails but was held inside the final furlong by a stronger finisher.Hellfires last 3 wins have been in low grade all weather heats. This was a better class 5 and he is now rated 75. I think he might have to drop to all weather contests to get his head in front again. As i said earlier its about opinions and i could be wrong. Sometimes though we think differently when our horse has only just got beat.

      1. Chris Worrall Post author

        We’ll all have a different view of things, but as I very rarely criticise jockeys and I’ve had a run of narrow defeats, then I’d say I wasn’t thinking differently because we just got beat.

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