Stat of the Day, 2nd September 2014
We started September in the same manner as we ended August, with a fairly well beaten 3/1 (adv 4/1) runner up who just ran into one too good on the day.
Dazzling Rita ran pretty well and had it not been for Top Billing living up to his name and running away from the pack after 2 from home, we'd have been back amongst the winners. Our selection was pretty comfortable ahead of the rest of the field, but had no answer when the eventual winner kicked for home 2 out.
After an indifferent last couple of weeks, results are improving and I hope this continues to be the case in today's very last race, the...
Where, if all goes to plan, our patience should be rewarded with a 7/2 BOG winner in the shape of Chris Wall's filly Venus Marina in this 7 furlong, Class 6 handicap for three year olds.
Chris' horses are in fine fettle at present, clocking up 8 winners from 25 runners in the last month alone and he's a man I like to keep an eye out for in A/W handicaps, as he has proved profitable to back under the right conditions for a good while now.
In fact, if you'd put a tenner on each of Chris' A/W handicappers since the start of 2011, you'd currently be £888 to the good, a 63.9% profit above your stakes invested courtesy of a record of 33 wins from 139 runners (23.7% SR).
From that opening general stat...
20/61 (32.8% SR) were winners here at Kempton, generating 67.8pts (+111.1% ROI) profits and...
...25/110 (22.7% SR) were priced in the 5/2 to 16/1 price bracket, producing 95.3pts (+86.7% ROI) profit, whilst...
...Kempton runners in that 5/2 to 16/1 odds range won 15 of 49 races (30.6% SR) and brought in 66.5pts (+135.8% ROI) profit.
Chris Wall is also very good at getting his three year old handicappers to run well, especially when competing within their own age group and since 2008, 75 of 350 (21.4% SR) of his 3 yr old handicappers have been winners. The level stakes produced by those 75 winners is 187.1pts, or 53.4% of stakes invested.
On the A/W, his 3 yr olds have won 30 of the 123 (24.4% SR) handicaps they have contested, generating 118.5pts profit (+96.4% ROI) to a 1pt level stake.
From the original 75/350 record for his 3 yr olds, the results are (unsurprisingly) better when restricted to races only involving 3 yr olds and the results for those races show 53 winners from 231 runners (22.9% SR) for 173.7pts (+75.2% ROI) profit. Of those horses, 77 races were on the all-weather and the resultant 19 winners represents a 24.7% strike rate for 82.7pts (+107.4% ROI) profit.
Mr Wall's 3 yr olds have incidentally won 10 of 27 (37% SR) 3 yr old handicap races here at Kempton, making 46.1pts (+170.7% ROI) along the way in that same 2008/14 timeframe.
Venus Marina comes here after finally breaking her duck at Yarmouth three weeks ago, which came after failing to make the frame on any of her previous six outings.
And so, my last chunk of data might sound a little familiar to some/many of you! As regular readers of my daily numerical ramblings are aware, I do like to look for horses turned out quickly after a recent return to form, as trainers like to "Strike Whilst The Iron Is Hot!". In this instance the criteria for my microsystem are as follows...
...A/W handicaps at Kempton / horse running at 10/1 or shorter / won last time out within the last thirty days / was unplaced in each of its last 3 (or more!) races prior to that LTO win. It's really not as complicated as it might at first look, but basically the horse has, for some reason, come into form and the trainer hopes it will run well again.
Well, since 2008, 448 horses have come to Kempton on the back of that return to winning ways and have been sent off at 10/1 or shorter. 110 of the 448 (24.6%) have completed the back-to-back successes and have generated 154.2pts (+34.4% ROI) profits for anyone backing them.
As these runners have come off the back of a win last time out, they are invariably running off a higher mark than their previous run and horses running off a higher mark have won 108 of 422 (25.6% SR) for 160.6pts (+38.1% ROI).
Venus Marina is now rated some 7lbs higher today, but interestingly other runners fulfilling the criteria and raised 7lbs have won 10 of 21 (47.6% SR) races here, generating 45.3pts (+215.6% ROI) in the process.
After a couple of improved but still unplaced efforts over 9f and then a mile, where she weakened badly late on, she was dropped back to today's 7 furlongs last time out and that seemed to work for her, as she still had enough left in the tank for a final effort and she stayed on well to win by the best part of two lengths.
She has raced on this track before, so there's no shock in store for her and if she continues to improve, the 7lb rise shouldn't be too onerous either, making me happy enough (well, as happy as a Bolton-supporting Lancastrian can be nowadays!) to place a 1pt win bet on Venus Marina at 7/2 BOG with BetVictor. Three other firms had priced her up at 100/30 BOG, but for the fuller picture...
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