Stat of the Day, 2nd October 2012
A poor start to the new month on a day when I couldn't even pick my own nose! Pretty much everything I looked at yesterday lost, so it's just as well that the SotD pick was my only bet of the day. As for that one, Edgeworth was backed in from our advised 14/1 to an opening show of 9/1, but there was little/no market confidence in him and he eventually drifted back out to 12/1. He was pretty much in the rear for the entire race, made a little (but not much) headway and eventually finished 120th of 14 runners, some 9 lengths away from the winner and 6 lengths or so from grabbing us a place, which never really looked on the cards at any point in the proceedings.
Today looks as tough to call as yesterday was and with Ayr only just passing an inspection this morning and a prospect of further rain there, we'll stay in England today, leaving us with Sedgefield and/or Wolverhampton and I'm going to be taking a safety first option in more ways than one today as we tackle a 10-runner, 7-furlong handicap on the polytrack, negating any fears about the ground for the...
In the last 6 months at Wolverhampton, Sir Michael Stoute has sent eleven runners to post, returning a very creditable 3 winners ( 27%) and an almost incredible 9 placers (82%) in an impressive record that reads 12121235432 and today he has an excellent chance of continuing that great run with the filly Cantal.
Cantal is a well-bred filly, who broke her maiden tag at just the second time of asking by taking Lingfield maiden last October. She has been lightly raced in the subsequent 11 months: running just 3 times in handicaps but finishing 3rd, 2nd and then third behind Idler at Kempton last time and giving a very good account of herself that day. Idler, incidentally, has won another 2 races in the last fortnight.
She is still running off the same mark of 79 as those last two place finishes and a repeat of that form would be enough to secure at least a top three result today. I don't think she's badly treated at the weights and there could very well be some more improvement to come for this one.
The conditions seem to be right for her today too, her only win to date was on a left-handed polytrack (Lingfield), as is Wolverhampton and over today's trip of 7 furlongs.
I said I was playing it safe today and the current best available odds of 11/2 BOG with Stan James just about allows me enough room to advise a 0.5pts E/W bet on Cantal with a view to at least getting our money back, but as always, I recommend that you...
Click here for all the latest odds for the 3.30 Wolverhampton.
PS Sir Michael does have another runner later 4.30 at Wolverhampton. Moonship, owned by Khalid Abdulla is an interesting looking sort: a half-brother to Derby / Arc winner Workforce. He might not be quite ready to win just yet at 12/1 BOG , but he's certainly one that's expected to at some point. Look out for the famous "Frankel" colours.