Stat of the Day, 2nd May 2018

Tuesday's Runner was...

4.15 Yarmouth : Ramblow @ 9/2 BOG 6th at 4/1 (Close up, ridden over 1f out, weakened final furlong)

We continue now with Wednesday's...

5.35 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rastacap @ 5/1 BOG

A 7-runner, Class 5,  7f Flat Handicap (3yo) on Good To Soft worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

Firstly, I started with the racecard (usually a good place to start!) and the Geegeez pace/draw tabs give a good indication of how similar races to this one have played out in the past. I quickly saw that horses who like to lead were most successful and that horses drawn low fared best from that perspective.

So, back to the card itself and I see that not only is our girl drawn in stall 1, but she's the only one who likes to get on with it leading to the Pace Forecast to suggest that Probable Lone Speed would be the outcome today ie she might well get out fast and hope to hold on. Brighton is a tricky place to win from behind in such contests and there's every chance we could nick it from the front and with Luke Morris on board, I'm confident that he'll judge it best.

And now the numbers!

This 3 yr old filly is trained by Mark Johnston and is one of seven runners representing the yard today, but the only one to be sent on the long trip to Brighton, but that's not a worry to me, because Mark's runners here are 31/140 (22.1% SR) for 47.1pts (+33.6% ROI) since 2008. To show, I'm not leaning on old data, they were 7/19 (36.8%) for 4.6pts (+24.2%) last season.

Of those 140 Brighton runners, handicappers are 21/90 (23.3% SR) for 62.2pts (+69.1% ROI), from which...

  • 3 yr olds are 17/64 (26.6%) for 37.5pts (+58.5%)
  • those who last raced 1 to 4 weeks earlier : 17/62 (27.4%) for 70.6pts (+113.8%)
  • over the last 5 seasons : 13/53 (24.5%) for 15.7pts (+29.6%)
  • at SP odds of 6/4 to 11/2 : 14/51 (27.5%) for 10.24pts (+20.1%)
  • at Class 5 : 6/31 (19.4%) for 4.4pts (+14.1%)
  • yard's only runner at the track that day : 9/25 (36%) for 13.9pts (+55.6%)
  • and Luke Morris is 1/1 (100%) for 2.5pts (+250%)

Based on the above, you could concentrate on the following...last 5 seasons / 3 yr olds / Class 4+5 / SP odds of 6/4 to 8/1 and who last ran 1 to 4 weeks ago. Backing such runners stands at 10/22 (45.5% SR) for 29.8pts (+135.3% ROI)...

...whilst more generally over the last two years, Mark Johnston's runners on the Flat over trips of 6 to 7.5 furlongs on ground no worse than soft are 116/679 (17.1% SR) for 162pts (+23.9% ROI) profit, including...

  • those last seen 11-30 days earlier : 62/363 (17.1%) for 82.4pts (+22.7%)
  • females are 46/285 (16.1%) for 161.8pts (+56.8%)
  • Class 5 : 44/189 (23.3%) for 48pts (+25.4%)

AND... Class 5 females returning from a short 11-30 day break are 8/39 (20.5% SR) for 53.5pts (+137.2% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Rastacap @ 5/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.10pm on Tuesday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.35 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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