Stat of the Day, 2nd January 2015
Sometimes you just have one of those days where nothing goes right for you and yesterday was probably as bad a start i could have made to a New Year. Pretty much everything I backed ran poorly, with the E/W bet on Thundering Home (14/1 & beaten by a neck) that I mentioned here being the highlight of my punting day.
As for SotD, Southfield Vic might have been closer than 13 lengths off the winner back in 7th of 10 runners at 4/1, had he not made a series of jumping errors which cost him ground each time. It is, I suppose, to his and his jockey's credit that they completed the course, but we really must do better!
We now head North for more handicap hurdle action in the...
Which, this time, is a Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 3m 0.5f on soft ground, where Nicky Richards' Teddy Tee makes his fourth start over hurdles at 6/1 BOG.
Today is his handicap debut...
Over the last four years,the Richards yard has a 31.25% strike rate with horses making their handicap debut over hurdles when priced between 2/1 & 11/1. The 5 winners from 16 runners have produced level stakes profits of 21pts (+131.1% ROI)
He was beaten at 33/1 a month ago...
Handicap hurdlers making their handicap debut after 3 to 6 previous hurdles runs and who ran in the last 21 to 60 days priced at 25/1 or bigger are 60/296 (20.3% SR) when sent off at odds of 21/ to 15/2 for that handicap debut. These winners have, in turn, generated 95.6pts profits at an ROI of 32.5%, whilst in 2014 the figures were 13 winners from 41 (31.7% SR) for 32.9pts (+80.1% ROI).
The horse was sired by Mountain High...
...who has been profitable to back in NH races over the last two years, since his progeny started hitting the track. To date, his offspring are 22/159 (13.8% SR) resulting in level stakes profits of 72.4pts (+45.5% ROI) from backing them blindly.
Of more relevance to today's race, where Teddy Tee has never raced further than the two attempts at 2m 4.5f here at Ayr, Mountain High's runners are 6/21 (28.6% SR) for 33.5pts (+159.3% ROI) at 2m 5f and beyond, from which there were 3 winners from the 7 that raced on soft ground with that 42.9% strike rate resulting in profits of 39.9pts at an staggering ROI of 569.6% from an admittedly small sample size!
Brian Harding is in the saddle today...
And since 2009, Brian has ridden 74 winners from the 404 Nicky Richards horses he has ridden. This 18.3% strike rate has manifested itself into decent profits of 80.8pts (+20% ROI) from blind backing, but we can analyse these 404 runners as follows...
Over hurdles : 35/226 (15.5% SR) for 56.2pts (+24.9% ROI)
In handicaps : 42/233 (18% SR) for 53.8pts (+23.1% ROI)
and in handicap hurdles : 23/129 (17.8% SR) for 37.3pts (+28.9% ROI), whilst 2014's contribution to those figures was 11/40 (27.5% SR) for 24.2pts (+60.4% ROI) and the Harding/Richards team will hope to continue that rich vein of form here today.
Of the 129 handicap hurdlers, the record at odds of 3/1 to 12/1 is excellent at 15 wins from 79 (19% SR) for 38.4pts (+48.6% ROI) profits with 7 winners from 22 (31.8% SR) for 30.1pts (+136.7% ROI) last year alone.
Making a handicap debut off a hurdles form line of 006 isn't going to fill you with much confidence at first glance, but this race bears no resemblance to any of those three outings. Breeding suggests the much longer trip on soft ground will suit Teddy Tee, the booking of Brian Harding to replace a claimer is very interesting and the current 6/1 odds are far shorter than the 25/1, 100/1 and 33/1 LTO SP's from those races.
Teddy Tee's opening mark of 92 is based on those three previous runs and if this trip/ground proves to be what he needs, then that mark could well end up looking quite lenient, not hat I'm suggesting he's been run falsely to get a low mark, of course!
This isn't an exact science and I am guessing a little bit there, but that's rewarded / reflected in the current odds of 6/1 BOG. There is, of course, a good case for an E/W bet here, but based on the above data plus the fact that jockey and trainer have excellent individual and combined stats here at Ayr, my call is a 1pt win bet on Teddy Tee at 6/1 BOG with Boylesports and that price is also available in at least two other places, so why not...
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