Stat of the Day, 2nd February 2014
Take The Lead was another big drifter yesterday as our advised 11/2 shot was eventually sent off at 10/1. The market was ultimately proved right, as she put in a disappointing performance to finish a distant last of eight runners.
The way she folded so tamely with over a furlong a to run suggested to me there might be something wrong with her, for although she wasn't the best horse in the race, but she was never 10 lengths worse than the 7th placed horse and a 25-lengths defeat in such a short race couldn't have been forecast.
Our second chance to get off the mark for the month comes from North of the Border in the...
Trainer Gordon Elliott has an excellent record here at Musselburgh, albeit from a fairly small number of runners. The fact that he doesn't race many here always alerts me when I see one his horses amongst the declarations.
The reason behind this is very simple: ten winners from thirty six runners is a 27.8% strike rate and if you'd put a tenner on each of those runners, your £360 bank would now stand at £476.20, an increase of 32.3%. As I said, he doesn't have many runners here, but they do go well. Those 36 runners are spread over the last seven years and his results over the last couple of years here reads 161311 for 8.06pts profit.
If we focus solely on his runners competing at 10/1 or under, we can eliminate 15 of the 26 losing bets, leaving us with a record of 10/21 ( 47.6% SR) for 16.6pts (+79.1% ROI) profit (11311 in the last two years for 9.06pts).
Just the one runner here today for Gordon and that's the consistent 4yr old Clarcam, who was last seen finishing second in an Irish Grade 2 contest at Leopardstown on Boxing Day which took his career form line to 22132.
Clarcam will be ridden by Jason Maguire today, who also has an excellent record here at Musselburgh with 31 winners from 104 rides in the last six years, that 29.8% strike rate producing 38.5pts (+37% ROI) profits. Jason has ridden 6 winners and made the frame on a further occasions from just just ten rides for Gordon Elliott here at this track.
He always seems to be there or thereabouts and whilst this is a stiff assignment under a weight penalty, he seeks to capture a race won by Gordon Elliott's last entry back in 2010. It's an eight runner field, meaning three places, so it's a safety-first 0.5pts E/W bet on Clarcam today. The best price is 13/2 BOG with Stan James, but for all the current prices...