Stat of the Day, 2nd August 2017

Tuesday's Result :

8.00 Perth : Wot A Shot @ 7/2 BOG non-runner Withdrawn at 7.15pm (going).

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

8.25 Sandown...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Flight of Fantasy @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

A winner over 1m4f in a higher grade to break her duck and she ran pretty well in a Class 3 handicap last time out. She drops in class tonight and became of interest to me as I try to look out for Harry Dunlop's Flat handicappers around this time of year. I say try to look out for them, as there's not that many of them!

What I want are those running in August & September basically, and over the last five seasons these runners are 11/81 (13.6% SR) for 7.75pts (+9.6^ ROI) profit, so blindly following Harry could make you a few quid. We can, of course, improve the numbers with some logical filters ie...

  • at Class 2 to 5 : 10/61 (16.4%) for 19.6pts (+21.1%)
  • over 1m to 2m : 11/59 (18.6%) for 29.8pts (+50.4%)
  • at Evens to 13/2 : 9/29 (31%) for 20.3pts (+69.9%)
  • and those ridden by Jim Crowley : 2/5 (40%) for 2.6pts (+52%)

And Jim's in good form at present, too. Despite not landing a winner on Day 1 of Glorious Goodwood on Tuesday, a third and three fourths from his four rides wasn't a bad effort at all and prior to Tuesday, he was 16/53 (30.2% SR) in the previous fortnight, winning 12 of 37 (32.4%) in the 7 days ahead of the Festival.

The final layer of the cake comes in the breeding, as this filly is by Nathaniel, who himself wasn't a bad one to be with, and to date his Flat handicappers are 12/42 (28.6% SR) for 43.8pts (+104.2% ROI), from which...

  • 3 yr olds are 12/41 (29.3%) for 44.8pts (+109.2%)
  • those last seen 11-45 days ago are 9/28 (32.1) for 11.3pts (+40.3%)
  • and at Class 4 : 5/12 (41.7%) for 28.53pts (+237.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Flight of Fantasy @ 5/1 BOG which was available from Paddy Power and Betfair at 6.30pm on Tuesday with plenty of acceptable 9/2 BOG around. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.25 Sandown...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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