Stat of the Day, 2nd August 2013
No flying start to August I'm afraid, as West End Lad was well beaten. No excuses to be made for him in a competitive race, other than he may have got going a little too late. That said, he still lost by over 6 lengths having drifted from my advised 5/1 out to 8/1 at the off, meaning I also got the market wrong too.
Today's selection runs in a Class 4 handicap contest over a mile on good ground and is one of nine runners expected to line up for the...
Today's selection is Investment Expert and there are a number of stat-based reasons why I'm siding with this one today.
1. He is trained by Jeremy Noseda, whose yard is in excellent form: six winners and three placed from fifteen in the last fortnight. The 40% strike rate producing over 30pts at SP.
2. Jeremy Noseda has an excellent record here at Newmarket on the July course with 45 winners from 211 runners (21.33%) in the last 10 years, accruing profits of 47.3pts in the process (+22.42% ROI) from all runners at all odds. That record more recently reads 18 winners from 76 in the last 4 years, a 23.7% strike rate, producing 27.6pts (+36.4% ROI) profit.
And when the money is down for one of his runners here (ie 4/1 or under), the record over the last 4 years is 13 winners from 28 (46.4%) for 17.4pts profit (+62.14% ROI)
3. Investment Expert makes his handicap debut today and in the last 4 years, the yard has had 19 winners from 94 horses making their handicap debut: a strike rate of 20.2% producing level stakes profits of 18.2 pts (+19.4% ROI) with that strike rate rising to 30% (15 from 50) with runners priced at 4/1 or under.
4. Investment Expert won last time out and is a former course and distance winner here. In fact it was his latest run a fortnight ago, when he won over C&D at 10/1. Returning C&D winners coming back to Newmarket off the back of a win last time out have a 12/52 win record (23.08%) for profits of 26.08pts (+50.2% ROI) and when we consider just those that fall into our usual SoTD odds range ie 2/1 to 11/2, then we see 9 winners from 24: a 37.5% strike rate that almost doubles your stake money with profits of 23.2pts.
Investment Expert improved greatly last time out when grittily taking a C&D maiden here a fortnight ago and I think that his opening mark of 74 looks quite lenient. He runs here for an in-form yard with a good record at the track and also with handicap debutants. I think that this horse will improve again today in this company and has the best recent form of all nine runners in this race and although we're not getting rich here, a 1pt win bet at 5/2 BOG with bet365 looks a good prospect.
When I wrote this up, not all firms had prices available for this race, so I strongly advise that you...