Stat of the Day, 29th October 2013
Lookoutnow ran pretty well for much of yesterday's contest and looked to have every chance approaching the penultimate hurdle, but he blundered quite badly at that one and lost all momentum. He struggled to get going again and was eventually brought home back in 7th place some 24 lengths off the pace.
Whether he'd have fared any better is unknown, there was still a fair chunk of racing to be done before the end and on this occasion the market was proven correct as our 4/1 shot drifted out to an SP of 6/1 via a price of 15/2 half an hour before the off!
Back to England for Tuesday's selection and a trip to the seaside where the...
Revolves around Marco Botti and his horse Ticoz, who overnight, is a 3/1 BOG shot with Paddy Power and William Hill.
Marco Botti's yard is in good nick at present with 7 winners from 26 in the last fortnight and a 50% place strike rate, whilst his overall record at Yarmouth with runners priced at 8/1 or under reads 16 winners from 78 and the subsequent profit of 16pts means that both the strike rate and the ROI are a decent 20.5%
Marco Botti's record with horses aged 3 or over making their debut for his yard currently stands at 30 winners from 115 horses priced below 12/1. The 26.1% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 105.4pts, or 91.7% of stakes. 47 of those 115 horses had previously run for another trainer, with 13 (27.7%) of them scoring on their debut for the new yard, producing 45.35 (+96.5% ROI) profits to boot.
And one more set of stats for you, since 2010 Marco has had 8 winners from the 29 horses making their UK handicap debut priced at 8/1 or under. It is admittedly, a relatively small sample size, but it would be foolish to ignore a strike rate of 27.6% and profits of 18.15pts, or 62.6% of stakes.
Ticoz is an 8 yr old veteran of 42 races and has come over from Germany, where he has been running pretty well of late, winning once in his last five outings and making the frame on three other occasions.
There's not actually a great deal else to tell about this one, other than I don't see him struggling to get 1m6f, as his last run was over 2m 1f when second at Frankfurt last time out and was third at this trip (Hamburg) the time before that.
He has achieved a Racing Post Racing of 103 in the past and as such an opening UK mark of 47 looks a little on the lenient side for a horse who goes well on soft ground.
Incidentally Ticoz will be wearing a tongue tie for this race, just as 67 of Marco Botti's runners have this year. 18 of those 67 (26.9%) have won, resulting in profits of 45.1pts (+67.3% ROI). With a 12/1 odds cap imposed, the figures are 17/51 (33.33%) for 41.5pts (+81.5%) with an impressive 13 winners from 23 runners priced at 4/1 or under generating an excellent 20.4pts profit, equivalent to 88.7% of stakes.
Martin Harley takes the ride today and he has done really well on the more favoured (ie 6/1 or under) Botti horses this year, winning 17 (39.5%) of his 43 races for a level stakes profit of 32.55pts (+75.7% ROI)
There's obviously no collateral UK form to talk about, but the whole host of stats supporting the selection have made me confident enough to stake a 1pt win bet on Ticoz at 3/1 BOG with William Hill. This price is currently also available at Paddy Power, so you can take your pick when you...
***NB, a 15% rule 4 deduction was applied at 0815 this morning, rendering our 3/1 bet down to 2.55/1 and the best BOG on offer is now 5/2.***
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Here is today's racecard!
P.S. Ticoz was born on the same day as my youngest daughter, but I promise that I didn't consider that particular stat when making my selection, although I'm sure she would approve! 😀