Stat of the Day, 29th May 2013
I hold my hands up on yesterday's rick of a pick, as it was only after I'd gone to press that I learned that the horse has trouble finishing races strongly. Matt has pointed out elsewhere that he's a bleeder and thus the tame finish Matt predicted in his excellent winning placepot (250/1) duly materialised as Looking Hopeful looked a bit hopeless, finishing back in 5th place at 11/4, but a good 32+ lengths off the winner.
I've got a bit of a mini stat pack for you today regarding the....
Amongst the various niches and angles I keep an eye with SotD in mind, three of them come to the fore today, each throwing up the same sole qualifier, but more on that shortly.
The first angle is the recent record of Roger Varian's horses making their handicap debut. Of the 62 such runners priced below 12/1 since the start of 2011, 13 have gone on to win, giving a decent 21% strike rate and a respectable ROI of over 22%, based on 13.8pts profit at betfair SP.
Secondly, I'd like to look at horses running at Nottingham on the back of a victory last time out and also have a Course & Distance win under their belts, Since the start of 2011, this has produced 10 winners from just 31 runners: a strike rate of 32.3% giving profits of 40.46pts at betfair SP, which is a very attractive 130% above stakes.
And finally, the third strand ties in with the second stat, but does serve to reinforce the numbers. Horses that won a Nottingham maiden last time out do particularly well at certain tracks next time out and one of those tracks is Nottingham itself. Horses reappearing at this track on the back of winning a maiden here have finished 11243124313 in the last 7 years (I've gone that far back, due to the small amount of qualifiers), a win strike rate of 36.4% producing 7.7pts at betfair SP (+70% ROI).
As I said earlier, each of those three micro-systems has just the one qualifier today and that is the progressive-looking Iffraaj Pink, who was beaten by just a head at Haydock a month ago by Valtina who has since competed in two listed events. Our selection then stepped up to take a maiden over course and distance here last time out whilst staying on strongly and looking like she'd plenty left in reserve. She's a half-sister to the classy Vale of York and seems to have been allocated a very fair mark of 82 for her handicap debut. The Varian team are applying blinkers for the first time today, as she has tended to wander around just a little in the past and it is hoped/expected the headgear will keep her on the straight and narrow.
We're not getting rich by any means here, but I'll be having a 1pt win bet on Iffraaj Pink at 5/2 BOG with Ladbrokes, but for your preferred bookie, please...
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