Stat of the Day, 29th March 2017

Tuesday's Result :

3.30 Hexham : Modulus @ 5/1 BOG WON at 6/1 Tracked leader, mistake 1st, outpaced before 2 out, headway before last and upsides leader when mistake, rallied run-in to lead last 50 yards to win by half a length

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

2.00 Southwell...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Treaty of Rome5/1 BOG


OK, here we have a very consistent USA-bred 5 yr old gelding who comes here in good form, despite not winning often enough. He's admittedly only 1 from 7 on the A/W, but has never finished out of the first four home and has been a runner-up three times and has also finished third once.

His only win on the A/W so far came here at Southwell under today's jockey Tony Hamilton and he has been a runner-up on his two previous efforts over course and distance.

And now to the numbers...

Since the start of 2008, USA-bred males are 386/2027 (19% SR) for 623.7pts (+30.8% ROI) here at Southwell, from which...

  • those with 12 or fewer previous runs here are 344/1689 (20.4%) for 608.4pts (+36%)
  • in handicaps : 253/1477 (17.1%) for 563.5pts (+38.2%)
  • at Class 5 : 130/679 (19.2%) for 251.6pts (+37.1%)
  • in Class 5 handicaps : 91/500 (18.2%) for 277.5pts (+55.5%)
  • in Class 5 handicaps with 12 or fewer previous runs here : 77/399 (19.3%) for 218.1pts (+54.7%)
  • and in Class 5 handicaps with 12 or fewer previous runs here 2014-17 : 23/93 (24.7%) for 231pts (+248.4%)

In addition to his country of origin being key to possible success, his actual breeding might point the way as offspring of War Front are 25/104 (24% SR) for 67.1pts (+64.6% ROI) over 6 furlongs, whilst his 5/6 yr olds are 9/33 (27.3% SR) for 52.1pts (+158% ROI) profit...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Treaty of Rome5/1 BOG which was available from Betway, Betbright, Hills, BetVictor & SkyBet at 6.10pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply... here for the betting on the 2.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

8 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 29th March 2017

      1. PauljD

        I already had done! Luckily spotted in time to pick another with Nicki’s Nipper which was outrun to the finish! Great work Chris, always worth waiting around for the next round of winners – doesn’t take long.

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