Monday's Result :
3.35 Market Rasen: Blue Rambler @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 2/1 (Tracked leaders, pushed along after 3 out, kept on same pace from 2 out)
Tuesday's runner goes in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
The Bishop @ 3/1 BOG
This 8 yr old gelding was a course and distance winner here on heavy ground last time out (12 days ago), prevailing by 2.25 lengths and looking like he had a little in reserve whilst being ridden by today's jockey, Kit Alexander, for the first time. He's up 4lbs for that win, but takes a drop in class on easier ground to run here and should be very much involved once again.
Trainer Nick Alexander's horses look in good nick (sorry!) at present and with 7 winners from 19 (36.8% SR) generating 8.27pts (+43.5% ROI) of level stakes profit over the last month, his string are worth a second glance at the very least. And, of those 19 runners over the past 30 days...
- Class 4/5 horses are 7/15 (46.7% SR) for 12.3pts (+81.8% ROI)
- those running on good to soft/soft ground are 6/12 (50% SR) for 11.85pts (+98.8% ROI)
- those ridden by Kit Alexander are 3/5 (60% SR) for 8.33pts (+166.5% ROI)
And so to more general issues, Hexham is one of Nick's favoured tracks and of the 67 runners making the 130 mile journey South from his base in the Kingdom of Fife since the start of 2011, there has been 12 winners (17.9% SR) for 26.6pts (+39.7% ROI) profits and I've found a load of profitable angles for Nick's runners at this track, but I'm only going to list a dozen today!
So, with today's conditions in mind, Nick Alexander's Hexham runners are...
- 11/58 (19% SR) for 30.2pts (+52.2% ROI) in fields of 11 runners or less
- males are 9/55 (16.4% SR) for 23.8pts (+43.3% ROI)
- 10/43 (23.3% SR) for 45.3pts (+105.3% ROI) from those who were last seen 1-60 days ago
- 7/38 (18.4% SR) for 16.9pts (+44.4% ROI) is the record in handicaps
- chasers are 6/23 (26.1% SR) for 31.2pts (+135.6% ROI)
- those racing over trips of 3m/3m1f are 5/23 (21.7% SR) for 16.14pts (+70.2% ROI)
- 8-11 yr olds are 7/22 (31.8% SR) for 40.5pts (+184% ROI)
- those priced 15/8 to 5/1 are 7/22 (31.8% SR) for 10.4pts (+47.2% ROI)
- on soft ground, they are 4/17 (23.5% SR) for 13.7pts (+80.7% ROI)
- those finishing in the top 3 LTO are 5/14 (35.7% SR) for 24pts (+171.1% ROI)
- Kit Alexander's mounts are 2/7 (28.6% SR) for 11.67pts (+166.8% ROI)
- and LTO winners are 2 from 6 (33.3% SR) for profits of 2.75pts (+45.6% ROI)
But wait, there's more! The drop in class might be the pivotal issue here and it's worth noting (IMO anyway!) that since the start of 2012, Nick Alexander's NH handicap class droppers priced at 12/1 and shorter are 14/75 (18.7% SR) for 33.1pts (+44.1% ROI) witht he following of particular relevance here...
- males are 11/63 (17.5% SR) for 30.2pts (+48% ROI)
- 7 to 10 yr olds are 12/58 (20.7% SR) for 43.1pts (+74.3% ROI)
- those racing over trips of 2m4.5f to 3m1f are 11/44 (25% SR) for 38.8pts (+88.1% ROI)
- chasers are 9/43 (20.9% SR) for 15.4pts (+35.8% ROI)
- and here at hexham, they are 3/13 (23.1% SR) for 1.82pts (+14% ROI)
So the call is...a 1pt win bet on The Bishop at 3/1 BOG with any one of more than half a dozen firms currently (9.10pm Monday) quoting that price. To see what your bookie is offering, simply...
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