Stat of the Day, 29th June 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day: 29th June 2012

SotD continues to endure a poor month, and this has been exacerbated by the frustrations of Yarmouth. For the second time this month at that track, I nominated a trainer's horse, only for his other runner on the day to prevail.

Yesterday, it was the turn of Les Verguettes to run moderately (9/1 from 11/1), as Charity Box bolted up a short time later at 5/1.

It's been that sort of month in truth, and these things happen. Yin and yang and all that. All we can do is keep on keeping on, and wait for the wheel of fortune to point back in our direction once more.

We'll take said wheel to HQ this evening, for the…

8.40 Newmarket

A sixteen runner Newmarket handicap may not be everyone's idea of a decent punting proposition, but there are reasons to be cheerful nonetheless.

First, we're siding with a chap called Mahmood al Zarooni, who has quickly established himself as a top drawer trainer. (It helps that he trains Godolphin horses, which are invariably expensive and well bred beasts!)

Moreover, at Newmarket, al Zarooni has registered 22 wins from 79 runs and a profit of 87.47 points. His three year old tally is 13 from 42 (31% strike rate) and 54.27 units of profit.

Second, as a three year old taking on older horses, Greek War should be near top weight, but due to weight for age allowances he carries bottom weight.

Third, Greek War looks to sure to appreciate the longer trip here, being a son of middle distance sire, Monsun, and having performed well at two over a mile. This extra quarter mile should be right up his street.

Fourth, Greek War has the services of flamboyant Frenchie, Mickael Barzalona, this evening. Nobody is riding better than him at the moment, and nobody is riding Newmarket's July strip better than him either. Indeed, he rode a four-timer here last Saturday.

He's only had five rides since then, which included two wins and a 16/1 second (beaten the width of the proverbial cigarette paper). Barzalona is in ferocious form.

Of course, in a race like this there are bound to be plenty of other fancied horses. The other three year old in the field, getting those same healthy allowances, Main Line is expected to improve; Sir Michael Stoute and Johnny G are represented too; as are the punting stables of Noel Quinlan, Willie Musson and Barney Curley (though the market speaks against the last name pair currently).

But I'm happy enough to side with two men - al Zarooni and Barzalona - at the top of their games, and a horse with allowances and plenty of scope to improve.

13/2 BOG with BetFred is the best available, and I'll go 'all in' (i.e. win only) this time.

Click here for the latest odds on the 8.40 Newmarket.

7 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 29th June 2012

  1. Chris Atkinson

    Brilliant Matt, been busy most of the day so only bet was your SOTD, if only all 5-1 shots I backed hacked up with such ease. Gave me some cash to play a couple of e/w shots in the Tour de France (Froome and Van den Broeck) and prepare myself for 3 weeks on the exercise bike following the Eurosport coverage!!

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Can’t wait for the Tour to start, Chris. Only looked at the route yesterday, so not really a betting race for me, though I’m surprised Wiggins is favourite. Froome is interesting after Giro (or was it Vuelta?) win, but will he be released from super domestique duties early enough… if at all?

      Bring it on!

      Matt

  2. Chris Atkinson

    There is that risk with Froome, but I think he may well get a podium finish even if he plays the supporting role for Wiggins and at 28-1, worth a few quid e/w. I think Wiggins deserves to be favourite, but he still has to prove it and as Westwood (golf) and Murray (tennis) have shown, to crack the big one is very, very difficult.

    I do think it will be a very open race without Andy Schleck and Contador and possibly the most exciting for some time now.

    Off now to find my yellow jersey from the back of the wardrobe!!

    Cheers and thanks again Matt for Greek War today.

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      I ended up backing three against the field in the ‘without Wiggins and Evans’ market, meaning I have each way down to fifth.

      I took Frank Schleck, Tommy Voeckler and Rein Taaramae. At 11/1, and 100/1 twice I’m prepared for them to finish nowhere, but I’m pretty sure at least one of them will make a robust push for a top five finish.

      Matt

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