Stat of the Day, 29th July 2017

Friday's Result :

3.55 Ascot : Appeared @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 2/1 Tracked leaders, took keen hold, steadied 10f out, headway from 5f out, driven 2f out, disputing 2nd when bumped over 1f out, soon short off room and squeezed out, beaten after, no extra final 150 yards.

Saturday's pick goes in the...

2.35 Chester...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shaaqaaf @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

In a bid to return to some semblance of form (the last couple of weeks have been tough going), I'm stripping SotD back to basics today and keeping it relatively simple/straightforward.

I like the horse's chances here, and she's acquitted herself in her five starts to date, finishing 34212 so far. She was a runner-up when last seen at Newmarket four weeks ago, but now drops in class to run in this open age handicap amongst just her own sex where she'll receive a healthy/useful 8lbs weight for age allowance.

On top of the form/weight issues, there's the Johnny G factor ie trainer John Gosden and his decent record here on the Roodee which has seen him land 18 winners from 67 (26.9% SR) for 11.4pts (+17% ROI) here since 2010. 26.9% is a decent strike rate indeed, but in respect of today's contest, his 67 runners here have the following strike rates...

  • 66.6% were runners-up LTO (2 winners from 3)
  • 34% when sent off at 5/1 and shorter (17/50)
  • 33.3% racing over 7 to 11.5 furlongs (16/48)
  • 30.4% racing at class 4 (7/23)
  • 29.4% in fillies' races (5/17)
  • 29.2% as 3yr olds (14/48)
  • 27.3% from his female runners (6/22)
  • and 26.4% from those racing after a break of 11 to 45 days (14/53)

She's also quite likely to go off as favourite and jockey Kieren Fox is 17/44 (38.6% SR) for 12.3pts (+27.9% ROI) on handicap favourites since the start of 2013, with those racing over trips of 5 to 8 furlongs winning 13 of 25 (52%) for 19.08pts profit at an ROI of some 76.3%...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Shaaqaaf @ 9/2 BOG which was available from Betfair Sports & Paddy Power at 7.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Chester...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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