Stat of the Day, 28th July 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 28th July 2015

The weather played its part in denying us a four-timer at Ayr on Monday afternoon, not that I'm one to make excuses, but Chadic seemed to toil in the soft wet conditions on offer.

That said, he still ran, so I suppose connections still fancied his chances, as did the market, sending our 11/4 shot off at a very tight 7/4. He seemed to travel OK, but not entirely fluently to around the 2 pole, where the race began to unfold and it was at that point he looked like he'd been stuck in reverse.

He quick backpedalled through the field and eventually came home a disappointing and distant last of the seven runners.

Posting picks well before race time does leave me open to going changes, so with the current unsettled forecast, I think we'll take in some A/W action via Tuesday's...

4.05 Wolverhampton :

Which is a lowly Class 6 handciap for 3yr olds and older over 9.5 furlongs on the Tapeta, where I'm expecting another good run from Mike Murphy's four year old gelding and dual course winner, Llyrical, who can currently (6.25pm on Monday) be backed at 4/1 BOG with SkyBet.

Mike Murphy's record in A/W handicaps since 2010 stands at 39 winners from 285 (13.7% SR) for 47.8pts (+16.8% ROI) with 18 winners from 85 (21.2% SR) here at Wolverhampton producing level stakes profits of 36.3pts at an ROI of 42.7%.

His Wolverhampton handicapprers priced at 6/4 to 13/2 are 15/37 (40.5% SR) for 45.4pts (+122.7% ROI), including a record of 4 wins from 5 (80% SR) for 17.1pts (+342% ROI) this year alone. Clearly a man to follow here.

Llyrical last ran 15 days ago, when winnig here at Wolverhampton by a neck, which just squeezes him into one of my recent runner micros. This one revolves around trainers turning horses back out 4 to 15 days after a top 4 finish LTO. Basically they've run well, had a short rest, but not got rusty, nor turned out too quickly. It's a fine balancing act, but ne some trainers are better at than others and Mr Murphy is one of them.

Such horses from his yard are 22/91 (24.2% SR) for 37.7pts (+41.4% ROI) since 2010, broken down with today's race in mind as follows...

  • handicappers : 15/64 (23.4% SR) for 36.4pts (+56.9% ROI)
  • priced at 8/1 & shorter : 20/61 (32.8% SR) for 40.4pts (+66.3% ROI)
  • A/W runners : 16/59 (27.1% SR) for 35.6pts (+60.3% ROI)
  • Class 6 : 12/28 (42.9% SR) for 26pts (+92.9% ROI)
  • and here at Wolverhampton : 8/16 (50% SR) for 31.6pts (+197.7% ROI).

Snce 2010, Mike's overall record here at Wolverhampton is excellent with 27 winners from 120 (22.5% SR) runners producing profit of 26.3pts (+21.9% ROI) and we already know from above that his handicappers are 18/85 (21.2% SR) for 36.3pts (+42.7% ROI), but we should also note that today's jockey Shane Kelly is 14/43 (32.6% SR) for 34.5pts (+80.3% ROI) on the Murphy runners here.

The Shane Kelly / Mike Murphy / Wolverhampton handicaps axis is worth 10 winners from 34 (29.4% SR) and 31.7pts (+93.2% ROI) of level stakes profits.

Llyrical himself is 2/6 here at Wolves and he's 2/5 under Shane Kelly and when ridden by Shane here at Dunstall Park, they've finished 411, including that win just 15 days ago.

There's plenty pointing towards another good effort from this horse, here and I'm more than happy to get 4/1 BOG from SkyBet, whilst the 7/2 BOG on offer elsewhere also looks attractive.

To see the very latest odds from the other bookies for Llyrical...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Wolverhampton

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

4 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 28th July 2015

  1. jethro

    I see Splash of Verve who is being well backed in the same race fulfils all the requirements of your own “back to form” microsystem Chris! (I.e. A horse turned back into a flat handicap 4 to 30 days after a win that was preceded by a run of 3 or more consecutive unplaced efforts. And the OR is no more than 4lbs higher than the winning run, running at a trip no more than 1f (up or down) different to last and running at the same class or just one level higher than LTO.)
    Should be a sitter for a reverse forecast with Llyrical! Good luck…

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      But this is an A/W race, not a Flat race.
      I do have a back to form system for the A/W, but the criteria are very different.

      Applying those Flat rules to the A/W incurs a 28% ROI loss since 2010.

  2. jethro

    Thanks Chris – that’s good to know. Misinterpretation in that case on my part…
    I hope I haven’t put a hex on us though. SoV is being really well supported! Cheers

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