Stat of the Day, 29th July 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day: 29th July 2012

Tom Dascombe's fine form continued yesterday, as both his runners finished second. That, alas, was no good for SotD followers and our win only pick, Gaul Wood.

It's the 'randomizer' button again today, and an outsider with an outside chance, in the…

4.30 Stratford

This is Nigel Twiston-Davies' time of year. And, with Stratford having the majority of its fixtures in the Summer, it's little wonder that N T-D runners go well here.

His overall figures in the last five seasons are 21 wins from 124 runs and +36.57 points. And his hurdlers are an even more impressive ten wins from 51 runners, and +56.32 points.

Twiston-Davies has just the one runner today, a hurdler called Lodgician. He's the complete outsider of the field as I write, but that's unfair in my view.

Lodgician has won at this course, back in August 2010, and his overall Stratford record reads 1523. He's got three career wins to his name, all on today's good to firm going, and all between July and September. So it's not too concerning to me that he's performed poorly on his last three starts.

With the benefit of a recent pipe opener, and on a favoured track and ground, and class. He's been in the first three in five of his last eight starts, and his trainer has seen ALL of his last ten runners placed 1-2-3-4. Lodgician is also a mile clear of the next best horse on Topspeed ratings for a race so seemingly competitive.

Lodgician is currently 25/1 BOG, and that looks worth a couple of quid, each way of course.

As ever, make sure you get the right price, so…

Click here for the latest odds for the 4.30 Stratford.

7 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 29th July 2012

  1. Johnny5

    Good luck today Matt

    See the price has contracted already by half – do you think it’s your well followed post that has done that … Or NTD connections

    Your following must be large enough to change and manipulate a market ??

    Fortunately I’m on at 25/1 bog early doors as you said – good luck and thanks as usual – win lose or draw !

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Thanks Johnny5

      I’m sure we have some bearing on the market, and it probably doesn’t take much to move a horse at 25/1 on a Sunday morning. That said, I’d also be fairly sure that a move of this proportion (now a general 8/1 or 9/1 chance) implies other ‘connections’ getting involved too.

      Matt

  2. David

    The money is definitely coming…but if I hadn’t seen your article I’d say…..
    12 races longer than 2M 1F – never won
    Never won at a price > 6/1 ( the way it’s going it may finish less than that!)
    Never won a race with more than 11 runners
    Never won a race with a break of more than 30 days
    Never won wearing a tongue tie
    His sire Grand Lodge has a 3-86 record with 10yo+ horses
    His sire Grand Lodge has a 0-46 record with horses running a 2M 6 1/2F

    Good Luck!!!!!

  3. Alan Slinn

    Hi Matt, Phil Middleton has 44% strike rate on hurdles and his Marju King is 17.5 on Betfair and 5.0 for a place had a few bob EW on him . A S

  4. graham ashford

    Hi Matt
    ran a solid race for a place (betfair s.p. 4.04) happy bunny!!
    will make a good profit this month
    keep up the good work

    Graham

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