Stat of the Day, 29th January 2018

Saturday's Result :

4.00 Uttoxeter : Major Hindrance @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 4/5 TTracked leaders, lost place before 3rd, ridden 5th, headway after next, not fluent 8th, struggling next, behind when mistake 4 out, rallied after 2 out, went 3rd last, no impression on leaders...

Next up is Monday's...

2.40 Hereford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


All Is Good @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 4, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m on Soft ground worth £4,159 to the winner...


Well, on a day where there aren't many stat angles jumping out at me, I'm going to keep it simple for a change!

I felt that presence of a Tom Lacey runner here meant that our pick offered some decent value at the prices quoted on what could be pretty tough going.

Our boy is trained by the in-form Robin Dickin, whose runners have all made the frame over the last fortnight with 3 winners and 3 placers from his 6 entrants and his representative here is a lightly raced 6 yr old gelding by Scorpion and that's of interest to me, because...

...Scorpion handicap jumpers are 14 from 102 (13.7% SR) for 113pts (+110.8% ROI) profit since the start of 2016 when running on ground declared as soft or softer and amongst those 102 mudlarks...

  • males are 9/79 (11.4%) for 115.2pts (+145.8%)
  • on Soft : 9/69 (13%) for 116.2pts (+168.4%)
  • over hurdles : 8/65 (12.3%) for 110.3pts (+169.7%)
  • at Class 4 : 9/60 (15%) for 121.4pts (+202.3%)
  • at odds of 2/1 to 10/1 : 12/55 (21.8%) for 29pts (+52.7%)
  • January/February : 7/36 (19.4%) for 22.03pts (+61.2%)
  • and here at hereford : 2/3 (66.6%) for 16.7pts (+556.6%)

...and this simple approach gives...a 1pt win bet on All Is Good @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.30pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply... here for the betting on the 2.40 Hereford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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