Stat of the Day, 29th December 2016

Wednesday's Result :

14:00 Leicester : Foundation Man @ 4/1 BOG 2nd @ 6/1 - Led from 1st, ridden and headed 2 out, kept on and no chance with winner.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

11:45 Southwell

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fern Owl @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

This four year old colt is up against a short priced favourite here today, but I think he looks value on what he has achieved in the past. He stayed on strongly to win from a mark of 71 (he runs off the same mark today) at Kempton in September, and a similar performance would give him a great chance.

Trainer Hughie Morrison has been among the winners recently, with the following stats applicable.

  • for the last 30 days he is 5/24 (20.83%) for 5.88pts
  • at the course over the last five years he is 20/91 (21.98%) for 18.35pts
  • and with stayers on the flat he is an impressive 40/204 (19.61%) for 30.17pts

Fern Owl seems to flourish with jockey Liam Keniry onboard, and he has the following stats.

  • for the past 14 days he is 3/21 (14.29%) for 5pts
  • at Southwell over the past year he is 3/16 (18.75%) for 0.25pts
  • and when riding Fern Owl he is 2/7 (28.57%) for 12pts

Over this distance Fern Owl is 1/5 (20%) for 6pts.

...which provides...a 1pt win bet on Fern Owl at 4/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, Paddy Power Skybet, Betfred and Betvictor (so we should all be getting the same deal!) at 18:25 on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 11:45 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

6 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 29th December 2016

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      No problem at all, it was nice to get back on top after a lean week or so. Always play the long game 😀

      And good luck to Steve for his pick today, which certainly seems popular at the bookies, meaning that win or lose Steve has provided excellent value at 4/1.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Nothing to do with me this time!
      Great pick at a great price from Steve.

      Very reassuring to know you’re all in safe hands, even if I’m not here!

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