Thursday's Result :
11.45 Southwell : Fern Owl @ 4/1 BOG WON @ 2/1 Tracked leaders, led over 2f out, pushed clear over 1f out, very easily, eased closing stages and still won by 8 lengths.
Friday's pick goes in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Thello @ 5/1 BOG
Thello has finished 147141 in his last six outings and 118841 in his last six A/W runs and having won over course and distance under today's jockey, last time out a fortnight ago, he's certainly in decent nick.
He has won 5 of his 19 starts so far, which is more than acceptable at this level, where the same horses usually take turns at beating each other, but amongst those 19 runs, I find the following of note today...
- 4/14 at Class 6
- 3/10 within 15 days of his last run
- 4/8 going left handed
- 3/7 on the A/W
- 3/6 over 1m2f
- 2/2 in December
- 1/1 under Louis Steward
- and 1/1 over course and distance
He also has the benefit of being trained by Garry Moss, whose handicappers are 24/124 (19.4% SR) for 71.9pts (+58% ROI) over the last two years, including...
- males : 21/105 (20%) for 79% (+75.3%)
- over 7f to 1m4.5f : 19/87 (21.8%) for 89.9pts (+103.4%)
- 11-60 dslr : 21/84 (25%) for 99.3pts (+118.2%)
- at odds of 11/8 to 9/1 : 20/82 (24.4%) for 31.8pts (+38.9%)
- at Class 6 : 11/49 (22.5%) for 40.9pts (+83.5%)
- 4 yr olds are 11/40 (27.5%) for 55.4pts (+138.5%)
- on Tapeta : 6/31 (19.4%) for 33.5pts (+108.2%)
- here at Newcastle : 4/20 (20%) for 16.88pts (+84.4%)
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Thello at 5/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betbright, Betway and Betvictor (so we should all be getting the same deal!) at 6.25pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS