Stat of the Day, 28th October 2015

Stat of the Day, 28th October 2015

Tuesday's Result :

2.05 Lingfield : Starlight Symphony @ 4/1 BOG : 5th at 6/1 (Raced wide in touch, ridden 2f out, not trouble leaders) and Houghton/Fahy teamed up for a 6/1 winner an hour later!

Wednesday's selection runs in the...

3.40 Fakenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Road To Freedom @ 100/30 BOG

Why?

Trainer Lucy Wadham has a 25% strike rate at this venue since 2008 and that alone sparked my initial interest. The numbers behind that strike rate are 22 winners from 88 runners and level stakes profits of 35.3pts at a healthy lick of 40.1%.

Here's my "magnificent seven" race-relevant stats that I've taken from those 88 runners...

  1. those priced at 11/10 to 12/1 are 20/76 (26.3% SR) for 43.5pts (+57.3% ROI)
  2. at trips longer than 2 miles : 22/71 (31% SR) for 52.3pts (+73.6% ROI)
  3. those with at least 8 runs under their belts : 20/60 (33.3% SR) for 51.5pts (+85.9% ROI)
  4. handicappers : 16/53 (30.2% SR) for 43.7pts (+82.4% ROI)
  5. 6 to 8 yr olds : 10/38 (26.3% SR) for 25.2pts (+66.3% ROI)
  6. ridden by Leighton Aspell : 11/37 (29.7% SR) for 23.7pts (+64.1% ROI)
  7. chasers are 15/35 (42.9% ROI) for 32.2pts (+92% ROI)

And let's chuck everything in together and make a 10-step micro, shall we? Lucy Wadham / Fakenham / 2009-15 (no qualifiers in 2008) / SP of 2.75 to 10.0 / trips of 2m4f and beyond / 8+ career runs / aged 6 to 11 / ridden by Leighton Aspell / handicap / chase : 5/10 = 50% SR for 23.74pts (+237.4% ROI) with three of the last four all winning.

That last micro was just a bit of fun (for us stattos anyway!), but mixing and matching from that list will make you some very usable angles for the coming season.

And my recommended bet?

A 1pt win bet on Road To Freedom at 100/30 BOG with either of Bet365 or BetVictor.

I've gone with Bet365, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Fakenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

9 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 28th October 2015

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Of course, Graham, but I actually can’t believe you’ve asked the question.
      He was a decent third two chase starts ago and he has no stamina/pace issues, but his jumping has, admittedly been sketchy.

      However, I’m guessing he has been extensively schooled in the 161 days that he has been off the track and I think it’s fairly safe to asssume that Mrs Wadham thinks he’s ready for another go and I’m prepared to concede that she knows more about these things than I do!

      The core stats behind the pick are valid and I’m just taking a bit of a punt on him having improved his jumping.

  1. jethro

    I see Artifice Sivola in the 2.40 Fakenham with the same Trainer/Jockey combo just hacked up! Positive thinking would suggest she will get a double with Road To Freedom; I just hope we’re not on the wrong stable runner today…

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      I’m not sure that’s right, to be honest.
      He didn’t quite land correctly at the last and lost a bot of momentum/ground and was gaining with each stride late on, once he got going again.

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