Stat of the Day, 28th October 2014
Machiavellian Storm was more Maciavellian Light Drizzle yesterday, if you get what I mean. Persistent but not strong etc etc. I tipped her at 9/2, thought she'd shorten but didn't and was eventually sent off at 5/1.
The bare result of a third place finish, whilst looking respectable doesn't tell the whole story. She was slow away and ran the majority of the race at a sedate pace at the back of the field, meaning that when the pace quickened, she was almost in a different postcode sector to the leaders.
This meant she had to be reactive rather than proactive and by the time she did get going, the race was lost. I'm not for one minute suggesting she should have won, but she did make considerable headway in the final furlong to pass 7 of her 9 rivals and did all her best work late on.
The fact that she was still beaten by 9 lengths suggests she was going as well as the leaders, but had she been closer to start with, who knows? Overall, a reasonable finish after a dreadful first half to three quarters. I still need a win to get off this losing run and I'm confident of one in the...
And Andrew Balding's 5/2 BOG-priced handicap debutant Geordan Murphy.
Andrew's runners are in great form of late...
...winning 8 of 40 races (20% SR) in the last fortnight alone, including some decent prizes.
He also tends to do well here at Windsor...
With a record of 32/163 since 2008 giving rise to a 19.6% strike rate that has, in turn, generated 60.6pts profits from 1pt level stakes at an ROI of 37.2%. Those running here in the 21 to 5/1 price band have won 18 of 47 (38.3% SR) races for profits of 33.5pts (+71.3% ROI)
His unexposed 3yo handicappers have a terrific record...
Those handicappers with 3 or fewer previous handicap outings, but with the benefit of at least one career victory are 60/355 (16.9% SR) for 127.4pts (+35.9% ROI) profit since 2008. And of those, the record at today's Class 5 level reads 9/30 (30.0% SR) for 17.1pts (+56.8% ROI) profit.
Today is Geordan Murphy's handicap debut...
Mr Balding's handicap debutants have a 14.2% strike rate since 2009, winning 28 of 197 efforts and producing level stakes profits of 72.6pts (+36.8% ROI) in the process. Of these 197 runners the record with 3 yr olds is 19/145 (13.1% SR) for 40.1pts (+27.6% ROI), whilst those running in a Class 5 handicap are 9/46 (19.6% SR) for 59.4pts (+129.1% ROI)
David Probert is in the saddle for this one..
And David has an excellent record on the Balding string meaning you can back him blindly and make money, which are the stats we like!
Since 2008, their joint record is 205 winners from 1221 runners; a 16.8% strike rate yielding 390.6pts at an ROI of 32%. These are brilliant figures for blind filter-free backing. That's not to say we can't filter them, of course! 😀
The Probert/Balding record with 3 yr olds is 114/597 (19.1% SR) for 276.7ts (+46.3% ROI) with those running at today's Class 5 level winning 56 of 233 races (24% SR) for 217.5pts (+93.4% ROI)
Geordan Murphy comes here on the heels of a course and distance victory on heavy ground a fortnight ago, when he won by a good five lengths despite being eased right down once the job was done. So, he'll come here in good heart and with prior knowledge of the track and trip. That was his first effort on turf and there's probably plenty of improvement to come from him at this level at least.
An opening mark of 75 doesn't look too punitive (the Racing Post had him at 81 after that last run) at all and with no fears over track, trip and going, I'm very confident of our chances of landing a winner, albeit at the lower end of where I like to stand for SotD.
The bottom line however, is that I think he'll go off shorter than he currently trades at, so I'm getting on Geordan Murphy with a 1pt win bet at 5/2 BOG with BetVictor, whilst all the other firms' price are available, when you...
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