Stat of the Day, 28th October 2012

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Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 28th October

An old skool clunker yesterday, with Robinson Collonges sulking when he didn't get his own way in front and tailing himself off subsequently. Remember Harry Fry though, because he'll be winning lots of races this season.

To today, and we go with a more obvious choice but still one loaded with frustration potential, in the…

1.55 Wincanton

Paul Nicholls has been in the top two in the trainers' championship for a very long time. Losing horses to Harry Fry won't help his cause this year, but he's still just about the best senior trainer on the block.

His record at Wincanton is pretty good - fifty winners from 182 runners in the last five years - but shows a marginal loss on investment of just shy of two points. Look more closely, however, and you'll see that with the chasers Nicholls sends to the track, he does rather well.

Indeed, of the 57 he's saddled in that time, fifteen have won (26%) for a level stakes profit of 22.82 points. Not bad at all.

Today, he runs just the one chaser on the card, and that's the frustrating Minella Stars. This chap has had nine tries at fences, and been placed on all nine. Unfortunately, he's only won one and has been second fully five times!

But. But but. The win was last time out, and it was ground out over the longest trip he's faced to date: a furlong shy of three and a half miles. Today, he'll go another half furlong further, and as a plodder royale, I hope he'll relish it.

Minella Stars acts fine on good ground (two of his second places were the only twice he ran on it); he's happy in smaller fields (eight go here); and he's been second on both starts at Wincanton too.

There's a good chance that Reach For The Top and Only Witness will want to get on with it, and any further creation of a stamina test will play into the extremely slow but gallant hooves of our fellow.

He looks fair nailed on for the frame, but I'm going to risk all with the SotD point placed squarely on Minella Stars' game nose. He's a best priced 9/2 (BOG) with Betfred as I write, and that's fair enough, I'd say.

Click here for the latest odds on the 1.55 Wincanton.

12 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 28th October 2012

  1. Ian L

    Hi Matt I wanted to get aquick comment on before the horse runs. personally, coming from Poole I am always pleased to back a West Country trained horse and I found the Harry Fry info very interesting. I am a jumps man really although I enjoy it all and for several years I followed Pipe Nichols and Hobbs and had some success working out when to be on which! for what its worth I have gone two points win at 9/2 on Minella. Good luck all!
    PS I am waiting for a Honeyball selection.

  2. Jim Hdez

    The last time Stats had a winner…..Bucks Fizz Won the Eurovision Song Contest !!!!.
    Someone is bound to say “Nevermind, it got backed from 9/2 into 5/2”.

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Jim, quick question: how long have you been betting? I’m guessing less than a year.

      You clearly don’t understand the simple principles of winning/losing runs, or value. With respect, I urge you to read up on these so that you can make more informed comment on subjects about which you’re not currently well placed to observe.

      Regards.
      Matt

  3. Jim Hdez

    Matt, I’ve been following and gambling on horses for nearly 20years.
    I’ve even had a stint at being a runner for Patrick Veitch, if only for 2 weeks.
    I’m fully aware of value and long term profit. All those that make up the Geegeez team are knowledgeable chaps, I’m merely jokingly bringing to attention the ‘long run’ of selections without a winner.
    All systems and services paid for or free, are all the same where results matter. I enjoy your website because its a good read and recently was impressed with the selections placed record.
    All the best for the future Matt. Jim (gambler for somewhat over a year)

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Hi Jim

      Thanks for coming back to me. A couple of points on Veitch and value.

      1. Value is not a price, it’s a price relative to probability. Veitch’s not below 4/1 was a personal choice.
      2. Out track record since starting is over 125 points to the good, and it obviously is important to be backing horses at optimal prices. On SotD we very rarely put a horse up at shorter than 4/1, not because there isn’t value there, but because we know our readers don’t generally bet at those prices.

      Minella Stars started at 5/2, but was available all morning at 9/2 with either Betfred or Victor Chandler. 5/2 chances win 26.82% of the time. If you were to bet 9/2 shots which won at that strike rate, you’d be nicely in front. That’s why it’s material to be getting bigger odds about horses than their SP.

      But of course, given your history, you know this.

      Matt

      p.s. Yes, it has been a while since we found a winner. I might nominate an odds on shot tomorrow. πŸ˜‰

  4. Jim Hdez

    Top man Matt, this is why I enjoy Geegeez like no other website or service !!.
    Funny enough, my only bet yesterday was Wonderful Charm trained by some chap called Paul Nicholls and a jockey named after an Indian Curry !!.
    That was Odds On (I managed 10/11 it Won 8/11).
    Some people NEVER back an odds on…. a winner is a winner in my book.
    Good luck tomorrow Matt.

  5. Ian L

    Interesting little dialogue here. i am afraid I am of the view that we had value today even though the horse did not perform as I had expected on this occasion. OK SotD is having a relatvely poor run and we all want that to change, but on two occasions recently even the commentator called EW selections third only for the official result to be different. I am in front following Sotd since June, thats allowing for me not always getting the best price and sometimes betting Win only on EW advice. Its very difficult to win long term gambling on horses and I am quite relaxed that Sotd will continue to do so – because of the value so often achieved! (As Matt and Jim probably both know, backing Odds on may find winners but is the road to ruin.)

  6. Ronnie Combo

    All I want to say is that SoTD, like the rest of this site, is great fun and great value. Nobody has to follow the tips. It’s FREE, people, it’s FREE!

  7. Bob Smith (@RobertS00994664)

    I agree with Ian L. – been with you since June and showing a good profit (as my P.P. account tells me daily). 2 x horses from trainers (1 x Honeyball) to follow ran today and both did very well from long odds – Boss’s Destination was staying on extremely well and must be worth a wager in next race, if given (say) anextra 1/2 furlongs. Regards

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Boss’s Destination given a tender enough ride from the back. Definitely one for handicaps around the three mile mark. Will win this season. πŸ™‚

      Matt

  8. martin

    Read the comments/exchange between jim and matt…as matt says its about finding value bets over the long term where the bookmakers give odds that are too generous…SotD has done this over its 11/12 month period…one week’s figures shouldn’t put anyone off. Class is permanent and form is temporary…SotD belongs in the former. martin

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