Stat of the Day, 28th November 2014
Wow! How badly wrong did it go for us yesterday?
I thought 6/1 was a good price about Mia San Triple, the market disagreed and she was sent off at 8/1. The market was proven right in this instance as she laboured to a defeat by almost 20 lengths coming home stone last of the 12 runners.
They do, however, say to accentuate the positives and I correctly predicted she'd provide early pace and try to get out quickly from a wide draw and she did indeed race very prominently to the 2 pole and that's where it all unravelled for her/us. She made such heavy weather of the run-in that it looked like she was wading through treacle.
So, that's another missed opportunity and a point lost and as we approach the end of the month, I could still really do with a couple more winners, the first of which will hopefully come in today's...
Where I fancy Comeonginger to complete a four-timer over fences to take his seasonal tally to 3 from 3 and you can get 3/1 BOG about this happening. The Chinese do say that the number three is lucky, so fingers crossed for a horse wearing number 3!
Horses at the top end of the racecard are there because they're perceived to be better than those below and so have to carry more weight (I'm also aware that I'm teaching you to suck eggs here) and you'll often hear that people don't want to back those carrying the most weight in testing conditions, but I tend to go the opposite way.
In the past, I've looked into the performance of fit horses running at the top of the weights over fences in tough conditions and this is what I've found...
In what I loosely term the winter months ie Jan/Feb/Mar/Nov/Dec on soft or heavy ground, horses in the top four of the weights in handicap chases and carrying between 11-5 & 11-12 inclusive, running within a month of their last outing have won 116 from 470 (24.7% SR) of races since 2008 with level stakes profits of 76.9pts equating to a 16.5% return on stakes. And from this we can draw down as follows...
Those priced 6/4 to 11/2 : 82/281 (29.2% SR) for 84.4pts (+30.1% ROI)
Won LTO : 104/420 (24.8% SR) for 69.5pts (+16.7% ROI)
Won LTO and now priced from 6/4 to 11/2 : 73/250 (29.2% SR) for 78.7pts (+31.6% ROI)
And Comeonginger did win last time out when cruising home by 17 lengths having made all at Fontwell over 2m 4.5f on soft ground 25 days ago. He's 3rd in the weights today (2nd inc jockey claims) and carries 11-7 so he's a good fit for that micro-system above. Incidentally, today's trainer Chris Gordon is 2/4 for 3.62pts from those stats above, including today's runner's last effort!
Chris's runners are going well at present and in the last week alone two of his ten runners have been winners, whilst another five have made the frame, including four runners-up. Chris is also one of a group of trainers I watch out running horses in chases within a month of a win last time out, especially when fulfilling certain criteria. As Chris forms part of a larger group of trainers fitting this bill, the sample size is quite small, but I think it's a very good back-up stat and so we're looking for...
...male handicap chasers who won last time out within the last month. They will have gone up by 4 to 10lbs (+5lbs today) and will be running at the same class or one grade higher (+1 today) and will be carrying no more than 11-9 (11-7 today). Since 2008, Chris Gordon's contribution to this micro-system has been 7 winners from 16 (43.75% SR) for level stakes profits of 22.5pts or 140.4% of all stakes. All 7 winners came from the 9 runners sent off at odds of 9/4 to 11/2 with that 77.8% strike rate yielding 29.5pts profit at an ROI of 327.3%.
It is, as I suggested a bit of a niche angle, but a valid one nonetheless and I should also point out that if you'd blindly backed each one of Chris's handicap chasers since 2009, you'd have hit 38 winners from 327 runners (11.6% SR) and a £10 level stake on each of them would have netted you almost £530 profit at an ROI of 16.2%, which isn't bad work at all. Stick those in a tracker and off you go! He's also 10/58 (17.2% SR) for 31.8pts (+54.9% ROI) profit on soft ground from those chasers.
There's plenty to suggest another win for Comeonginger is on the cards and the fact he's only raised 5lbs for that facile win last time out suggests he's still ahead of the game. We are, of course, asking for a career best performance today, but at the age of 7 after just 8 chases, he probably still has more scope for improvement.
I suspect he'll race prominently as usual, keeping out of trouble, he jumps well and doesn't mind the soft ground either making a 1pt win bet on Comeonginger look a decent proposition at 3/1 BOG. I've used my Hills account today, but at least ten other bookies are offering the same price. To see what yours has to offer...
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