Stat of the Day, 28th May 2016

Friday's Result :

8.40 Musselburgh : Qaffaal @ 11/4 BOG WON at 2/1 (In touch, headway over 2f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on to beat his 14/1 stable mate by a length, securing a 27.5/1 forecast for Mick Easterby in the process.)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

4.00 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Heir To A Throne at 5/1 BOG

Why?

Rated as high as 83 already and in consistently good form despite winning, his four consecutive runner-up finishes are clearly the best form on show here today. His latest run, at Beverley 18 days ago, saw him come within a neck of breaking his duck. An interesting development from that race is that the third placed horse, Haraz, was a length and a quarter further back, but improved to also get within a length of winning on Friday night, so if the form holds out...

That conjecture aside, what we do know is that his trainer, Kevin Ryan, has found Chester to be a happy hunting gorund over the last half dozen years, but more particularly since the start of the 2014 season. He may well have only sent 33 runners here in that time, but 8 winners (24.2% SR) and 26.4pts (+80% ROI) profit are numbers worth taking notice of, especially under today's race conditions, where those horses are...

  • 8/26 (30.8% SR) for 33.4pts (+128.5% ROI) as 2 to 5 yr olds
  • 7/23 (30.4% SR) for 34.2pts (+148.7% ROI) 16 to 60 days since their last run
  • 6/18 (33.3% SR) for 32.53pts (+180.7% ROI) carrying 8-09 to 9-04 inclusive
  • 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 40.2pts (+236.5% ROI) at odds of 3/1 to 9/1
  • 5/15 (33.3% SR) for 25.2pts (+168.1% ROI) at Class 4
  • 4/10 (40% SR) for 20.77pts (+207.7% ROI) in non-handicaps
  • 3/10 (30% SR) for 13.35pts (+133.5% ROI) under jockey Shane Gray
  • 3/8 (37.5% SR) for 17pts (+212.8% ROI) in maidens
  • 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 18.53pts (+264.7% ROI) from those with a top 2 finish LTO

Also, in additon to the above... 3-5 yr olds, racing over 7f to 8.5f on the Flat, 6 to 30 days after finishing 2nd or 3rd and were also placed in the first three in the two races prior to that run (ie 3 x top 3 in a row, but lost LTO) are 171/756 (22.6% SR) for 212.2pts (+28.1% ROI), broken down with today's race in mind, as follows...

  • 3yr olds are 126/552 (22.8% SR) for 21.6pts (+38.3% ROI)
  • those finishing 2nd LTO are 106/423 (25.1% SR) for 159.1pts (+37.6% ROI)
  • in non-handicap contests : 55/173 (31.8% SR) for 186.2pts (+107.6% ROI)
  • in maidens : 27/62 (43.6% SR) for 12.3pts (+19.8% ROI)
  • those beaten by a neck or less LTO are 17/55 (30.9% SR) for 51.5pts (+93.7% ROI)
  • and here at Chester : 5/16 (31.25% SR) for 14.1pts (+88.1% ROI)

AND, from the above... 3 yr olds in non-hcps, who were runners-up LTO are 28/74 (37.8% SR) for 141.9pts (+191.7% ROI), of which maiden races produced 18 winners from 35 (51.4% SR) for 15.6pts (+44.6% ROI) and those beaten by a neck or less are 11/25 (44% SR) for 42.43pts (+169.7% ROI), leading to...

...3yr olds in maidens, beaten into 2nd place by less than 1 length last time out are 13 from 17 (76.5% SR) for 17.5pts (+102.9% ROI)

...so the call today is...a 1pt win bet on Heir To A Throne at 5/1 BOG which was available in several places at 6.50 pm, but to see what your preferred firm is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

11 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 28th May 2016

  1. bernard

    My understanding of ladbroke prices are that they are not BOG until day of race ie after midnight. Also BOG plus only applies if the SP is bigger than the early price taken. An early price taken say 3/1 and the sp is 3/1 will be paid 3/1 not 10/3. Having quoted that they did exactly that on one occasion. I feel that it was an error. They have not done it since! Nice to see stat of day performing well again. I have not lost faith. Thanks for all your hard work Chris.

  2. Everyone calls me Paul

    Cheers Chris. Re Ladbrokes they’ve been paying out BOG from the day before. Matt’s first effort on your recent break got us a BOG+ result.
    Paul

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Ah, I thought that was the case, I just got the BOG plus thing wrong. Anyway we get 5/1 about an 11/4 shot. Happy days, back Monday!

  3. winderman

    I’ve only been on gold since early May. Marvellous piece of kit, and your contributions are outstanding.
    Followed you thirteen times and won six. Long may it continue, good luck to the future Chris

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