Stat of the Day, 28th March 2018

Tuesday's Runner was...

4.15 Hereford : Bridane Rebel @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 6/1 (Prominent, lost place after 4 out, plugged on before last, went modest 4th, no impression, looked to go wrong just before finish)

The above report is the official line from the Sporting Life : the sad realism here is that Bridane Rebel was fatally injured and the thoughts of everyone here at Geegeez are with connections and stable staff, who will no doubt be devastated tonight.

We continue with Wednesday's...

2.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Awesome Allan @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 5, 6f Handicap (4yo+) on Tapeta worth £3,752 to the winner...

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding has been running consistently well of late, finishing 2232 in his last four outings, so certainly wouldn't be winning out of turn here today. Last seen just four days ago going down by three parts of a length over this very course and distance, he's quickly turned around to hopefully go one better. A similar kind of run should be enough today, considering he's taking a drop in class to run here.

Stats-wise...since the start of 2013 in UK A/W handicaps over 6 to 10 furlongs, horses turned back out just 2 to 5 days after a win or a defeat of 3 lengths or less went on to win 232 of 926 (25.1% SR) follow up races returning level stakes profits of 217.9pts at an ROI of 23.5% : excellent profits from a "one size fits all" micro system approach.

Understandably, not everyone wants around 175 bets a year from one betting angle, so the 926 runners can be further broken down as follows...

  • males are 180/692 (26%) for 190.3pts (+27.5%)
  • those beaten LTO are 148/647 (22.9%) for 206.5 (+31.9%)
  • here at Wolverhampton : 85/325 (26.2%) for 108pts (+33.2%)
  • over 6f  : 63/274 (23%) for 51.6pts (+18.9%)
  • 4 days since last run : 66/249 (26.5%) for 125.9pts (+50.6%)
  • running over same C&D as LTO : 57/200 (28.5%) for 96.4pts (+48.2%)
  • and 4 yr olds are 55/194 (28.4%) for 68.8pts (+35.5%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Awesome Allan @ 3/1 BOG which was offered by BetVictor, Betway, Paddy Power, Skybet & Totesport at 6.05pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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