Stat of the Day, 28th June 2017

Tuesday's Result :

4.00 Beverley : Katebird @ 11/2 BOG (4.68/1 after 15p R4) WON at 2/1 Chased leaders, challenged over 3f out, led over 2f out, clear over 1f out, kept on well to win by 3.5 lengths.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

3.40 Salisbury...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Here And Now @ 9/4 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old colt was last seen 7 weeks ago, winning on his turf debut over 1m4,5f at Chester, where he beat Stradivarius by half a length. The latter then reappeared last Friday to win the Group 2 Queens Vase at Royal Ascot, whilst our boy has waited to run in this Class 3 handicap. Even without any stats, you'd have to expect him to go well again, especially as he's now had a run on grass.

Thar win at Chester took his record at 1m4f/1m4.5f to 2 from 2 and he has now made the frame in each of his four starts to date (2131) and he now seeks to follow up that run with a win in a race targeted by his trainer, Ralph Beckett, who horses have won 2 of the last 7 renewals of this contest.

Ralph, himself, is a trainer to keep an eye on, for he tends to make profit from blindly backing his horses, but for those not into blanket betting a single trainer, you could just focus on his record here at Salisbury, which since the start of the 2012 campaign looks something (OK, a lot!) like 28 wins from 164 (17.1% SR) for level stakes profits of 19.6pts at an acceptable ROI of 12%.

If you wanted (and I always do!) to drill down into those figures further to see why this contest appeals to him, you find that, of those 164 runners...

  • those running on Good / Good to Firm ground are 21/96 (21.9%) for 27.83pts (+29%)
  • 3 yr olds are 15/82 (18.3%) for 19.1pts (+23.3%)
  • handicappers are 14/68 (20.6%) for 24.2pts (+35.6%)
  • on Good to Firm : 11/61 (18%) for 15.48pts (+25.4%)
  • after a break of 26-60 days : 12/45 (26.7%) for 33.12pts (+73.6%)
  • over 1m4f/1m6f : 11/35 (31.4%) for 43.06pts (+123%)
  • at Class 3 : 4/24 (16.7%) for 16.7pts (+69.7%)
  • and LTO winners are 5/23 (21.7%) for 3.12pts (+13.6%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Here And Now9/4 BOG which was offered by pretty much everyone at 6.30pm on Tuesday with plenty of firms to choose from. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Salisbury...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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