Stat of the Day, 28th July 2017

Thursday's Result :

7.05 Newbury : Pilgrims Treasure @ 7/2 BOG 6th at 7/2 Pushed along briefly after start, held up in touch on inside, eased out over 3f out, headway chasing leaders soon after, hung left over 2f out, ridden inside final 2f, soon beaten.

Friday's pick goes in the...

3.55 Ascot...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Appeared @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has 2 wins and 4 places from his last 6 runs and was a winner two starts ago over this course and distance, before finishing second LTO five weeks ago, also over C&D.

There was no disgrace in getting beaten at that Royal Ascot race, as not only did he beat 17 other rivals in that Class 2 race, but the winner has since gone on to land a Listed contest by a wider margin than the defeat suffered by Appeared.

His trainer Roger Varian is in prime form at the moment, having saddled 7 winners from just 19 runners (36.8% SR) in the last 9 days, whilst throughout his career his Flat handicappers priced at 13/2 or shorter are 154/637 (24.2% SR) for 52.8pts (+8.3% ROI).

Now, whilst 8.3% ROI isn't as high as we normally lead with on SotD, it's actually a decent return from blanket betting over 600 runners with no filters other than price. If we do apply some relevant and logical filters, then the numbers become far more attractive, such as...

  • those finishing 2nd to 7th LTO are 99/369 (26.8%) for 72.5pts (+19.6%)
  • those racing after a break of 21-75 days are 80/300 (26.7%) for 62.5pts (+20.8%)
  • those racing over 8.5 to 12.5 furlongs are 77/286 (26.9%) for 91pts (+31.8%)
  • in the months of June/July : 75/277 (27.1%) for 46.8pts (+16.9%)
  • at Class 2 : 25/127 (19.7%) for 7.6pts (+6%)
  • 5 yr olds are 11/40 (27.5%) for 17.6pts (+43.9%)
  • and those ridden by the excellent Silvestre de Sousa are 8/20 (40%) for 5pts (+25%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Appeared @ 11/4 BOG which was available from Bet365 & BetVictor at 5.45pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Ascot...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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