Stat of the Day, 28th January 2013

SotD : 28/01/13

SotD : 28/01/13

Stat of the Day, 28th January 2013

Well, the apparent good thing that was Pont Alexandre won in that manner, but Sizing Gold took the forecast position and paid us place pieces at 9/1 (9/5 on the place part).

Not much to go at today, with just Wolves (again!) and Kempton (again!!) surviving the snow/waterlogging, and it's a tentative effort in the...

4.40 Wolverhampton

A six runner mile and a quarter handicap, and four recent course winners in opposition. So, clearly, SotD is going with one of the non-winners!

Ed Dunlop is a trainer to side with here, as his 21% strike rate (35 winners from 170 runners) attests. 21 of those winners were 3yo's, like today's entry, Abraq, and they were collectively worth a profit of 31.5 points.

So far in seven starts, Abraq has yet to finish in the first three, but this is not nearly as strong a race as it might look from a cursory study of the digits to the left of the names. Abraq started life in very good Newmarket maidens, so was clearly highly regarded. Since then, he'd dropped from an initial handicap mark of 73 down to a workable 67.

In truth, Abraq probably won't be getting too many chances for his current trainer - a man from whom we bought Khajaaly a few years ago when he had a similar profile (three wins since) - and he really needs to show something this afternoon.

Despite the short field, there are a couple who like to go on and a couple more who like to race prominently, which is good news considering our chap is normally held up. Stevie Donohoe does the steering today, and he's a fair man to have on side when the money's down. I'm not sure that the money will be down today (except ours, of course), but I think Abraq has a better chance than his price suggests and, with only two places to play for, I'm siding win only at 17/2 BOG with BetVictor.

Click here for the latest betting on the 4.40 Wolverhamton

 

3 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 28th January 2013

  1. Matt Bisogno Post author

    A slight correction on my part. The odds were 17/2, not 19/2 this morning, so I’ve amended the main copy to reflect that. Apologies – had some issues calculating the fractional price from the decimal price. Back to skool for me!!

    Matt

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