Stat of the Day, 28th April 2016

Wednesday's Result :

3.30 Wolverhampton: Ilzam @ 7/2 BOG 6th at 4/1 (Chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, no extra)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

4.10 Redcar

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dandyleekie at 11/4 BOG.

Why?

Since the start of the 2012 campaign, trainer David O'Meara's runners have won 35 times from 190 (18.4% SR) efforts on the flat here at Redcar with the 53.6pts level stakes profits equating to an ROI of a very useful 28.2% and in the context of today's encounter, those runners are...

  • 27/134 (20.2% SR) for 48.1pts (+35.9% ROI) in handicaps
  • 31/132 (23.5% SR) for 83.6pts (+63.3% ROI) at odds of 9/4 to 12/1
  • 21/84 (25% SR) for 55pts (+65.5% ROI) ridden by Danny Tudhope
  • 13/61 (21.3% SR) for 31.7pts (+51.9% ROI) 4 to 15 days after their last run
  • 10/41 (24.4% SR) for 40pts (+97.5% ROI) as 4 yr olds
  • and 5 from 26 (19.2% SR) for 10.8pts (+41.5% ROI) at Class 4.

From the above, Danny Tudhope is 13 from 46 (28.3% SR) for 39.7pts (+86.4% ROI) in handicaps at odds of 9/4 to 12/1.

Dandyleekie's win last time out a fortnight ago was his first run for six months and since the start of 2014, the O'Meara Class 4 handicappers with just one run in the previous 90 days are 14 from 52 (26.9% SR) for 60.1pts (+115.5% ROI) with the following of interest today...

  • males are 12/42 (28.6% SR) for 64pts (+152.4% ROI)
  • those with a top 5 finish LTO are 11/32 (34.4% SR) for 29.6pts (+92.6% ROI)
  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope are 9/30 (30% SR) for 27.1pts (+90.2% ROI)
  • those racing over 5 to 7 furlongs are 7/25 (28% SR) for 36.6pts (+146.4% ROI)
  • and 4 yr olds are 7/19 (36.8% SR) for 49.9pts at an ROI of 262.7%

That win last time out also came after a switch of yard following a sequence of results that saw him fail to finish in the first three home in five consecutive outings. Yet, since 2009 in the months of April to October, handicappers racing over trips shorter than 1m5f at classes 3 to 5, 11 to 25 days after a win that was preceded by three or more unplaced efforts are 58/388 (15% SR) for 139.1pts (+35.8% ROI), provided they aren't stepped up in trip by more than a furlong, aren't rated any more than 4lbs higher than LTO and aren't stepping up by more than one class.

(sounds complicated, but it really isn't!)

And the call is...a 1pt win bet on Dandyleekie at 11/4 BOG with any one of around a dozen firms all quoting the same price at 6.40pm. To see what your bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

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