Stat of the Day, 27th September 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 27th September 2013

We backed My Target at 11/4 BOG or 5.0 with Betfair (depending on which you chose) and he was sent off at 9/4 and that's pretty much as good as it got. He was never really involved in the shake up and finished back in 6th of the 11 runners, around 14 lengths behind the winner.

That's two poor runs in a row for me in what's becoming a disappointing week, but we go again today with a trip to the Black Country Beach aka Dunstall Park for the...

8.40 Wolverhampton

I've had quite a bit of personal success this year with horses looking for back to back successes after coming back to form after a series of poor runs. I noticed that horses turning out on the All-Weather within thirty days of a win last time out performed really well, especially if they'd been unplaced in their previous three (or more!) successive outings before that win.

Trust me, it's far easier to work in numbers than words, but I basically want a horse out of form coming back to winning ways and turned out within the month.

This year there has been 45 such winners from 152 runners, a strike rate approaching 30% (29.61% to be exact!) and these runners have produced 50.99pts profits, an ROI of 33.55%. This is based on an odds filter of evens to 6/1.

Of those 152 runners attempting back to back victories, 138 had made their return to the winners enclosure on an all-weather track and the 42 winners from those runners represents a strike rate of 30.43% for profits of 54.3pts , or 39.35% of stakes.

Royal Peculiar very much fits that bill today. He won on 22nd December last year at Lingfield off a mark of 80 and was placed 3rd in his next outing 3 months later here at Wolverhampton off his revised mark of 82 and it has been pretty much downhill since. He was then unplaced in eight successive handicaps as his mark tumbled from 82 to 72 and he dropped down from Class 3 to 4 and then to 5 where he was at last time out.

He took advantage of that drop in the ratings to score here over 1m 4f fifteen days and has been quickly turned back to hopefully capitalise on his new-found form. He has admittedly been raised 8lbs for that win back to a mark of 80, but he has won off that mark in the past and although he had that long run of unplaced finishes, he had actually been running pretty well on a consistent basis at a higher level.

If he runs to his potential and justifies the trainer's decision to step up in trip, then it will hopefully be a return to the winners enclosure for both Royal Peculiar and SotD! He's currently joint favourite at 4/1 BOG with Bet365, BetVictor and Hills, so I'd suggest that you...

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