Stat of the Day, 27th October 2015

Stat of the Day, 27th October 2015

Monday's Result :

2.45 Ayr : Derryfadda @ 5/1 BOG : non-runner (withdrawn due to unsuitable ground)

Tuesday's selection runs in the...

2.05 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Starlight Symphony @ 4/1 BOG


She comes here in decent nick, having only been denied by a short head last time out, despite conceding 5lbs to a winner who then went on to win again next time out.

Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton’s record in A/W handicaps with horses in the Evens to 12/1 (my usual starting point for all microsystems!) since the start of 2011 is 28 winners from 157 runners with the 17.8% strike rate generating 70.8pts (+45.1% ROI) of level stakes profits. And of those 157 runners...

  • John Fahy has ridden 16 winners from 65 (24.6% SR) for 62.9pts (+96.7% ROI) more about John shortly
  • Class 5 runners are 13/62 (21% SR) for 42.4pts (+68.5% ROI)
  • Here at Lingfield 9/50 (18% SR) for 24.1pts (+48.2% ROI)

I mentioned just there that John Fahy rides this yard's A/W handicappers very well and he also has a decent record on the EJH string here at Lingfield with 9 winners from 40 rides (22.5% SR) for profits of 72.7pts at an ROI of 181.7% and those 40 runners can be further categorised as follows...

  • those running 6f to 10f are 9/35 (25.7% SR) for 77.7pts (+222% ROI)
  • Class 4/5 runners are 8/29 (27.6% SR) for 76.4pts (+263.5% ROI)
  • handicappers are 8/26 (30.8% SR) for 38pts (+146.2% ROI)

And my recommended bet?

A 1pt win bet on Starlight Symphony at 4/1 BOG with either of 10Bet, Bet365, BetVictor, SkyBet and/or Paddy Power, whilst Ladbrokes are the same price, but don't go BOG until 9.00am on race day.

I've gone with 10Bet, as they'll refund any defeat by up to a head, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering... here for the betting on the 2.05 Lingfield

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Here is today's racecard.

4 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 27th October 2015

  1. Everyone calls me Paul

    Cheers Chris. Must train myself to look at the exchanges (not just via Oddschecker) before getting on…5.5 and 5.6 on Betfair. I’d be happy to take a 10% premium to BOG prices for your selections, as they generally shorten, with the added advantage that it’ll keep the BOG accounts open longer!

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      That’s really not a bad shout, Paul.
      I often have a tickle there myself too for the same reasons!

      The reason I quote BOG, though, is purely because more people should be able to replicate the same bet.

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