Stat of the Day, 27th October 2013
Ifandbutwhynot ran a decent enough race and led in the run to the final hurdle. He was beaten over that one by Karinga Dancer who had far more left in the tank and went on to win comfortably, as we left back in third place at 4/1, half a point longer than we'd advised.
We turn back to a micro system of mine that has really been amongst the winners of late and a runner from a yard very much in form who'll be hoping to take the...
The trainer in question is Charlie Longsdon, who yard is in top form at present with 23 winners from 57 runners in the last month and whilst he sends three horses to Aintree today, he has just the one runner here in the shape of Theatrelands.
Theatrelands is another of my "Back To Form" horses, whereby I highlight NH horses running on the back of a win LTO within 30 days of that win, which came after a string (of at least 3!) of consecutive unplaced efforts.
When these horses have turned back out quickly and have been priced at 6/1 or under, they have gone on to win 70 times from 204 attempts (34.3% SR) for level stakes profits of 81.65pts, an ROI of some 40%. Three of the last six such qualifiers have won with another one making the frame.
Theatrelands showed promise in three bumpers with finishes of 1,8 and 3 before running third on his hurdles debut. There then followed a form line of 6909 before his 5-lengths win at Towcester 17 days ago.
He wore cheekpieces for the first time in that last race and it is hoped they'll do the trick again, where's he's up 8lbs in the weights, but still runs off a mark lower than his original allotted handicap.
It's also a step up in class for him today and this fact, when added to the rise in weight means we can get a decent price about Theatrelands today. I wrote this piece late Saturday / early Sunday, as I'm out for much of the day today (family stuff, nothing exciting!) and the general consensus was that he's a 9/2 shot, but BetVictor offered half a point more at 5/1.
They say fortune favours the brave, so I'm in for a 1pt win only bet on Theatrelands at 5/1 BOG with BetVictor. This price is likely to move one way or another before the off and to keep an eye on the market, simply...
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