Stat of the Day, 27th November 2017

Saturday's Result :

6.45 Wolverhampton : Berryessa @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 6/4 Chased leaders, took keen hold, driven over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, beaten by just a length.

Next up is Monday's...

2.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Play The Ace @ 10/3 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ A/W Handicap Chase over 2m3f on Good to Soft ground worth £8133 to the winner.

An 8 yr old gelding whose record in handicap chases is an impressive 5 from 13 (30.5% SR) for 11.2pts (+86.2% ROI) and from those 13 runs, he is...

  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 12.2pts (+101.7%) at trips of 2m4f to 2m7f
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 13.2pts (+120%) wearing a tongue tie
  • 4/10 (40%) for 7.31pts (+73.1%) in cheekpieces
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 10.66pts (+118.4%) in 2017
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 6.95pts (+86.9%) under jockey Sean Bowen
  • 5/7 (71.4%) for 17.2pts (+245.7%) within 25 days of last run
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 12.29pts (+175.6%) at odds of 6/4 to 11/2
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 7.25pts (+362.5%) running in November.

That 2/2 November stat has been achieved in the last 25 days via wins at Stratford by 1.25 lengths and then by 10 lengths at Wincanton next/last time out 9 days later/16 days ago. This latest victory flags Play The Ace up on one of my stored micro-systems, which I'll share with you now...

...the rules look more complicated in print that in practice, but I want...Male Class 3 chasers aged 6 to 9 yrs old who won a handicap chase last time out (11 to 25 days ago) by 2 to 10 lengths. Since 2010, there has been 339 such runners with 86 winners (25.4% SR) and 160pts (+47.2% ROI) profit, from which...

  • those up in weight by 5 to 9lbs from LTO = 68/251 (27.1%) for 152.6pts (+60.8%)
  • 8 yr olds are 32/112 (28.6%) for 82.7pts (+73.9%)
  • 8 yr olds up in weight by 5 to 9lbs from LTO are 27/79 (34.2%) for 87.8pts (+111.1%)
  • on Good to Soft ground : 19/72 (26.4%) for 65.4pts (+90.9%)
  • on Good to Soft ground and up in weight by 5 to 9lbs from LTO : 17/57 (29.8%) for 62.5pts (+109.7%)
  • and 8 yr olds on Good to Soft ground and up in weight by 5 to 9lbs from LTO : 4/11 (36.4%) for 17.35pts (+157.7%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Play The Ace @ 10/3 BOG which was offered by Ladbrokes & Coral at 5.25pm on Sunday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

8 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 27th November 2017

  1. Blokeshead

    Wow – I’d forgotten those so-called “random picks” (arf!) that Chris finds could drift like barges and still win relatively comfortably. 😉

    Cheers Chris – you might very well see November out in the black now. Good luck, good sir!

  2. Elmore20

    Appreciate the info, most useful and first time I’ve followed it. Got on late at 6/1 and was concerned about the drfiting price but the horse came go on the run in over the last two fences and one to follow. Cheers, Guy.

  3. Rambler

    Great win Chris – got 11/4 with Sky last night, must have been friendless today – BOG a must for night before betting. Hope the good recent run of success continues. Many Thanks

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