Stat of the Day, 27th May 2016

Thursday's Result :

2.40 Bangor : Slidecheck @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 9/1 Held up mid-division, headway from 4 out, went 3rd from 2 out, kept on and lost 3rd place close home. I'm clearly not doing too well with the summer jumpers at present, so...

...Friday's pick goes in the...

8.40 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Qaffaal at 11/4 BOG.

Why?

This 5yr old gelding was a winner two starts ago off a mark of 63, but failed to cope properly with a 5lb rise in weight a week later, only managing to finish third, a length and three quarters off the pace. He's up another 1lb for that run (I never really get how horses are penalised for losing), but the booking of the more than useful 5lb claimer Nathan Evans puts the horse on a very workable mark today.

Add in the fact that he's already won over this 7f trip on good to form ground and confidence starts to build. Some people don't like backing horses ridden by claimers, but certain trainers are very adept at using these jockeys and Mick Easterby certainly places them well, as since the start of 2012, 5lb claimers have won 24 of 170 handicaps (14.1% SR) for profits of 35.8pts (+21.1% ROI),

That's a decent return from blindly backing all runners, but better results can be achieved by using any of the following logical filters...

  • those priced 6/4 to 14/1 are 24/121 (19.8% SR) for 84.8pts (+70.1% ROI)
  • on the Flat (turf) : 16/98 (16.3% SR) for 38.6pts (+39.3% ROI)
  • at Class 5/6 : 19/93 (20.4% SR) for 83.3pts (+89.6% ROI)
  • those with a top 3 finish LTO are 12/52 (23.01% SR) for 31.2pts (+60% ROI)
  • over trips of 5-7 furlongs : 9/45 (20% SR) for 39.5pts (+87.9% ROI)
  • 5yr olds are 11/42 (26.2% SR) for 66pts (+157% ROI)
  • those ridden by Nathan Evans are 7/39 (18% SR) for 10.9pts (+28% ROI)
  • and those last seen 26-45 days ago are 5/34 (14.7% SR) for 23.8pts (+70% ROI)

AND...Class 5/6 Flat (turf) handicappers priced at 6/4 to 14/1 are 14/49 (28.6% SR) for 78.5pts (+160.3% ROI)

In addition to the above, 3 to 5 yr olds racing on the Flat over 5f to a mile 16 to 60 days after finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th and were also winners two starts ago (ie form of 12, 13 or 14) are 247/1384 (17.9% SR) for 320.3pts (+23.2% ROI) since the start of the 2012 season, with the following of particular interest today...

  • those last seen 3 to 5 weeks ago are 132/716 (18.4% SR) for 207.6pts (+29% ROI)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 97/479 (20.3% SR) for 169.8pts (+35.5% ROI)
  • 5 yr olds are 36/182 (19.8% SR) for 108.8pts (+59.8% ROI)
  • and here at Musselburgh : 6/28 (21.4% SR) for 12.75pts (+45.5% ROI)

AND...those racing on good to firm, three to five weeks after their last run are 53/252 (21% SR) for 117.2pts (+46.5% ROI)

So the call today is...a 1pt win bet on Qaffaal at 11/4 BOG which was available with either BetVictor and/or Paddy Power, who were the best available at 8.00pm, but to see what your preferred firm is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.40 Musselburgh

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

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