Stat of the Day, 27th June 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 27th June 2015

So, it became a case of going back from the ridiculous of Wilde Inspiration's poor run on Thursday to the sublime of the facile victory achieved by Secateur at Newmarket on Friday evening.

He made all, Frankie barely laid a glove on him, shook the reins a bit with two furlongs to go and that was that. He was in such command that they passed  the post at little more than a trotting pace and still won by 4.5 lengths.

It was a truly imperious performance, further enhanced by us getting 7/2 about a 3/1 winner, because every little helps (so the guys at Tesco tell us!).

Saturday is the usual feast of racing before the famine of Sundays (that issue needs addressing IMO, but that's for another time!) and we're off to the Queen's backyard for the...

3.55 Windsor:

And not the usual type of race I target, but there are some compelling stats surrounding the 5yr old gelding, Huntmans Close in this 15-runner, Class 2 handicap over six furlongs on Windsor's usual good to firm ground.

He's trained by Roger Charlton...

...whose horses are going really well again, winning six of twenty-five (24% SR) in the past fortnight and in the last five seasons, his runners are 16/89 (18% SR) for 49.2pts (+55.3% ROI) here at Windsor.

His handicappers are 9/42 (21.4% SR) for 58.1pts (+138.4% ROI) here on this track whilst those running over trips of 6 to 10 furlongs are 16/73 (21.9% SR) for 65.2pts (+89.3% ROI).

If you put the two together, you get a record of 9/31 (29% SR) for 69.1pts (+223% ROI) from the Charlton 'cappers running here over 6 to 10 furlongs, with those priced at 5/2 to 6/1 winning 6 of 25 (24% SR) for 11.9pts at an ROI of 47.6%.

James Doyle takes the ride today...

And James has a good record on the Charlton string, especially in the better quality of races than the daily bread and butter. In Classes 1 to 4 contestest, the partnership has 47 wins from 273 rides, a 17.2% strike rate that has generated level stakes profits of 19.4% at a modest ROI of 7.1%.

Now whilst this ROI is on the low side for SotD purposes, that's from blind backing and any stat that produces blind profit from so many runners is not only a valid stat, but also an excellent starting point for a niche micro.

And of those 273 runners, competing over 6 to 10 furlongs are 38/211 (18% SR) for 40.6pts (+19.2% ROI) and those priced at 15/8 to 9/1 are 40/164 (24.4% SR) for 59.2pts (+36.1% ROI) with those running over 6 to 10 furlongs at 15/8 to 9/1 winning 33 of 130 (25.4% SR) for 57.4pts at an ROI of 44.1%. The duo are also 3/10 for 8.61pts here at Windsor under those conditions.

Huntmans Close was well fancied for last Saturday's Wokingham Stakes at nearby Royal Ascot, but let's just be diplomatic and say he had some attitude issues which led to him being withdrawn. It's quite possibly that the occasion got to him on the day, as he has been very well behaved in the past, but the fact he was likely to go off as favourite in such a large-field valuable race tells you all about his ability.

Prior to the non-running at Ascot, he was only beaten by a short head at Newmarket coming off a break of 225 days since winning the Ayr Silver Cup to close out his 2014 campaign, a race that has produced 14 victories to date.

That win followed by a narrow defeat alerts me to a micro system I follow on the Flat over trips of 5 to 10 furlongs with horses aged 3 to 5 yrs old. What I look for is horses finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out 16 to 60 days ago, as long as they had won their penultimate race and in the last four years there have already been 1552 such horses!

267 of the 1552 have turned to winning way for a second victory in three runs with the resultant 17.2% strike rate yielding profits of 160.4pts at an ROI of 10.4%, again an excellent return from blindly backing on average 400 runners per season!

I appreciate you might not want that many bets from one sytem per year and with the dataset being so large, there is a myriad of ways to break the sample size down. For reasons of time, space, my sanity and not wishing to bore you too much, I'll just put the 1552 runners into the perspective of today's race...

  • Class 1 to 4 runners are 165/950 (17.4% SR) for 159.1pts (+16.8% ROI)
  • Those beaten by less than 2 lengths LTO are 132/750 (17.6% SR) for 89.9pts (+12% ROI)
  • 5yr olds are 34/196 (17.4% SR) for 38.4pts (+19.6% ROI)

Not only does Huntmans Close fit that brief above, he's a former course and distance winner here under James Doyle and proved he handles quick ground by winning that Ayr Silver Cup last season on good to firm ground. He tends to fare best on flat straight tracks and doesn't generally get fazed by competing in large fields.

I'm happy to put last week's shenanigans down as a one-off and I'm putting my shilling on Huntmans Close at 4/1 BOG with Bet365, with at least three other firms matching that price. A fuller picture of the market can be obtained by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 3.55 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

17 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 27th June 2015

  1. jethro

    That’s a shame Chris as we’ve missed a jolly good price by the looks!

    I always back your SotD selection blind anyway, so if you ever get the chance to post the selection, prior to typing up your well constructed reasoning, I for one would much appreciate it! I know you have done this in the past at times… Cheers

  2. jethro

    Ah sure – I’m just being greedy probably! I’m just in a slight quandary now as to whether to take the 7/2 BOG tonight; or wait to see if the price goes up slightly again in the morning?
    Either way, good luck and thanks again for the wonderful service…

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Cheers, Geoff.
      Marathon does get overlooked, but understandably so. It’s not on oddschecker and isn’t BOG.

      If their prices were advertised a bit more, who knows?

  3. Blokeshead

    I used Marathon half a dozen times back in 2013. Then, over Christmas that year, wholly without warning, they froze my account because I “hadn’t provided any ID documents”. I reiterate that they hadn’t asked for them up to that point. Anyway, I wrote this assessment of the timeline of the issue to their “customer services” department on Boxing Day:

    1. 21 Dec, just before the Christmas holiday, which includes Boxing Day, one of the busiest times of the year for sport, you ask for ID documents.
    2. I provide them within just a few minutes. At no point was I told these might not suffice.
    3. Five, 5, days later, my account is still frozen, now actually ON one of the busiest sporting days of the year, and still nobody can free it up for me.
    4. I have SEK 1883 frozen through no fault of my own, and therefore cannot use any of this to bet on any of the races at the eleven, yes 11, race meetings today, nor in any of the hundreds of football matches being played around Europe.

    I have now asked for my money back, and hope you can process this immediately. After that, I suggest you close the account, because I think the chances of me using it again are about one in a million. Rarely, if ever, have I been so utterly disgusted by the performance of a bookmaker (or anyone else for that matter) and as you might imagine you are up against some pretty stiff competition.

    The money was repaid a few days later and I haven’t been tempted to use them since. As I’m running out of BOGs bookies, I may have to eat a few slices of humble pie with people like this Mickey Mouse outfit in the months and years to come, but my gut instinct tells me there are usually good reasons why overlooked bookmakers are overlooked.

  4. FGR

    Well done again, Chris.
    It’s early days, and I’m new here, but we may be able to exploit the profitability of these selections even further.
    Today, for example, Huntsmans Close touched 6 in-running having been returned at a Betfair SP of 5.72 – so opportunities there.
    Yesterday, Sacateur only touched 4.3 in-running, but that’s because he made every yard, and was returned at a Betfair SP of 4.29.
    Both horses were potentially successful back-to-lay selections too.
    What I’m getting at here is, by having more than one betting strategy, exchange punters in particular, should be able to boost returns even further.
    I’ll keep a close eye on this and get to back to you if, or when, I find a suitable angle.
    Well done again.

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Hi FGR

      If you want to look back rather than tentatively forward, you’d be well advised to scout the weekly update posts. They show the advised prices and the SP.

      Most people are more ‘pure’ punters – back a horse, want it to win – than traders, but each to their own.

      For trading, I’d advise looking at Instant Expert and Pace Analysis, both of which identify horses which are likely to get shorter at some point (Instant Expert nails form horses pre-race before the market cottons on, e.g. Clever Cookie and Montefeltro today; and Pace Analysis spots horses that may get easy leads and therefore trade shorter in running).

      I’d suggest both are a more consistent source of trading opportunities than SotD (though that, of course, is a victim of its own success to some degree, as you’ve touched on previously).

      Matt

      1. gray306

        Hi Matt and Chris, just a quick line to let you know I am back in the fold after a couple of years in the wilderness!! Looking forward to resuming sotd selections and also going for Gold!
        Cheers Graham

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