Wednesday's Result :
5.30 Catterick : Swansway @ 9/2 BOG 7th at 3/1 Close up, ridden 2f out, weakened final furlong.
Thursday's pick goes in the...
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Pilgrims Treasure @ 7/2 BOG
An unexposed three year old colt making only his fifth start having already landed one win and two places from his previous four runs. He was a decent second (only beaten by 0.75 lengths) behind a far more experienced rival last time out (4 weeks ago) and although the good to firm ground was probably far too quick for him, he still finished with clear daylight between himself and the chasing pack.
Having won on soft ground already, I'd suggest today's advised Good to Soft (might yet deteriorate) would be far more to his liking on a track where his stablemates have done well in the recent past, as...
...Trainer Charlie Appleby is 10/35 (28.6% SR) for 9.76pts (+27.9% ROI) here at Newbury over the last three seasons (including this one) and these runners include...
- 3 yr olds @ 5/21 (23.8%) for 2.4pts (+11.3%)
- at Class 4 : 4/16 (25%) for 1.3pts (+8%)
- ridden by William Buick : 7/14 (50%) for 17.66pts (+126.2%)
- over this 1m2f C&D : 3/8 (37.5%) for 0.92pts (+11.5%)
- and those having their 2nd handicap run are 3/6 (50%) for 0.22pts (+3.68%)
The booking of William Buick is very pertinent in my opinion, as he has a 19.2% strike rate on this track since 2012 that has generated 50.8pts profit at an ROI of 26.3%, so it's fair to say he rides this course very well.
William is also in fine form, winning 17 of his 74 (23% SR) races over the past month, whilst Charlie Appleby's horses are 9/34 (26.5% SR) over the last fortnight and it's also worth noting that the pair work well together with 68 winners from 280 (24.3% SR) for 98.9pts (+35.3% ROI) profit since the start of 2016.
In addition to the excellent trainer/jockey stats above, one of my stored micro-systems tells me that since 2012, 3 yr olds who won two starts ago ahead of a runner-up finish LTO 21 to 60 days ago are 89/375 (23.7% SR) for 250.3pts (+66.8% ROI) profit when running over 5f to 1m2f on turf officially deemed as no faster than good to firm, nor any slower than good to soft.
In respect of today's contest, those 375 qualifiers contain the following profitable angles...
- handicappers are 65/283 (23%) for 134.9pts (+47.7%)
- males are 51/224 (22.8%) for 161.3pts (+72%)
- at Class 4 : 26/91 (28.6%) for 50.6pts (+55.6%)
- and those racing over the same C&D as LTO are 6/22 (27.3%) for 17.14pts (+77.9%)
...which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Pilgrims Treasure @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betfred, BetVictor & Totesport at 6.35pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!