Stat of the Day, 27th December 2016

Boxing Day's Result :

1.40 Wincanton : Chakisto @ 7/1 BOG WON at 3/1 - Held up towards rear, headway 3 out, led approaching last, ridden out to win by a length and three quarters.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

12.50 Chepstow

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pobbles Bay @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

A relatively uncomplicated explanation (for a change!) this time about a 6 yr old gelding who returned from a 216-day absence to win on his chasing bow at Uttoxeter last time out.

He was a winner by 16 lengths that day, 45 days ago, on soft ground in this grade and under today's jockey and there's every chance he'll improve for the experience, especially as the 3rd, 4th and 6th placed horses (who were 20, 25 and 47 lengths behind him) have all won since.

He's up in trip today, but stays 3m2f, he's 2/3 at this grade and has, of course, won under today's jockey Adam Wedge.

From a statistical point of view, Evan Williams' NH handicappers making only their second appearance in a 90-day period are 84/533 (15.8% SR) for 162.9pts (+30.6% ROI) since the start of 2010, with the following of particular relevance here today...

  • in chases : 51/280 (18.2%) for 64.7pts (+23.1%)
  • on good to soft ground : 20/127 (15.8%) for 58.9pts (+46.4%)
  • under Adam Wedge : 26/125 (20.8%) for 86.3pts (+69%)
  • over 2m7f to 3m1.5f : 18/113 (15.9%) for 60.7pts (+53.7%)
  • 6yr olds : 19/101 (18.8%) for 63.95pts (+63.3%)
  • LTO winners : 21/72 (29.2%) for 64pts (+88.9%)
  • and here at Chepstow : 7/44 (15.9%) for 30.1pts (+68.4%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Pobbles Bay at 9/2 BOG which was available from my preferred Bet365 and also from BetVictor, Betway and/or Hills (so we should all be getting the same deal!) at 8.20pm on Boxing Day (yes, we work through Christmas for you here at Geegeez!) To see if your preferred bookie is also offering 9/2 BOG, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 12.50 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

 

3 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 27th December 2016

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.